Vietnam’s GDP Projected to Surge by 10% in 2026: Experts Confident in Achievable Growth

The National Assembly has adopted the Resolution on the Socio-Economic Development Plan for 2026, marking it as a pivotal year. It signifies the beginning of the implementation of the 5-year Socio-Economic Development Plan from 2026 to 2030, propelling the nation into an era of robust growth and prosperity.

According to the Resolution, the targeted growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2026 is set at 10% or higher, with the per capita GDP expected to reach between USD 5,400 and USD 5,500.

Individual Business Households to Contribute 1% to GDP

As the new year approaches, economists are forecasting an optimistic outlook for 2026’s growth trajectory, particularly noting positive shifts in interest rates and exchange rates.

Mr. Dominic Scriven, Chairman of Dragon Capital, describes the 10% GDP growth target as ambitious yet achievable. With nearly three decades of living and investing in Vietnam, he recognizes the government’s determination and concrete measures, expressing confidence in Vietnam’s success.

One of the key factors bolstering Mr. Scriven’s optimism is the potential contribution of individual business households to GDP growth.

Currently, there are approximately 5 million such households nationwide, whose contributions to growth have historically been “unofficial.” The government is actively formalizing this sector, notably transitioning from lump-sum taxation to declaration-based taxation, to enhance transparency, broaden revenue sources, and fully recognize their GDP contributions.

“Many small-scale business households operate with remarkable professionalism and significantly contribute to the economy. With the formalization of individual business households, we anticipate this group will contribute approximately 1% to GDP annually over the next three years. Therefore, I believe the 10% GDP growth target is feasible,” Mr. Scriven remarked.

Additionally, public investment serves as a substantial growth driver. Mr. Scriven estimates the current investment volume at around USD 150 billion, comprising USD 25 billion from public investment, USD 25 billion from FDI, and USD 100 billion from the private sector.

“Public investment is the key driver, as evidenced by its role in stimulating private investment. Public investment is projected to reach USD 25-30 billion during 2025-2026 and continue rising in subsequent years. Private enterprises are increasingly investing in infrastructure, which is crucial for growth,” Mr. Scriven added.

Mr. Scriven highlights 2025 as a year of impressive economic recovery for Vietnam following the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, Resolution 68 has fostered enthusiasm, instilled confidence, and encouraged a robust recovery among private sector entities.

One surprising aspect, according to Mr. Scriven, is Vietnam’s strong export performance in 2025, despite early-year challenges related to countervailing duty policies implemented by the U.S.

Furthermore, monetary policy stability and the elevation of Vietnam’s stock market to emerging market status have contributed to its position as Asia’s strongest performer in 2025 after years of stagnation. Dragon Capital reports stable profit growth among 1,500 listed companies, reflecting recovery across both large and small enterprises.

“Dragon Capital views 2026 as a favorable year for businesses in Vietnam. Based on current growth trends, we project corporate profit growth of around 16-20%,” Mr. Scriven stated.

“For 2025, our analysts have revised upward the profit forecast for listed companies from an initial 15% to an expected 20%,” he added optimistically.

10% GDP Growth Target is Entirely Attainable

Economist Can Van Luc notes that businesses are entering a new phase with renewed preparedness for the upcoming year. In 2026, despite lingering impacts from tariffs, the global economy is not expected to recession, with a projected growth rate of 3%, consistent with 2025.

“For Vietnam, we propose a growth target of 9-10%, striving for 10%. This goal is entirely achievable in the absence of significant natural disasters. Inflation is not a concern, as commodity prices remain stable, and the government effectively controls prices of key commodities,” Mr. Luc stated.

According to Mr. Luc, key growth drivers are expected to recover uniformly. Notably, robust public investment, if fully disbursed as planned at USD 34-35 billion, could contribute an additional 2 percentage points to economic growth.

Mr. Luc also forecasts that Vietnam’s GDP growth for 2025 will reach 8%.

“With a 7.85% growth rate achieved by the end of Q3, we anticipate Q4 growth at 8.4%, resulting in an annual growth rate of approximately 8%. Absent significant storm damage, particularly from the three severe storms recently affecting Central Vietnam, growth could reach 8.4-8.5%,” Mr. Luc added.

Mr. Huynh Minh Tuan, founder of FIDT Investment Consulting and Asset Management JSC, expressed optimism that Ho Chi Minh City will be a key growth driver in 2026. He noted that alongside the strengths of the three merged localities beginning to emerge, he observes a “resurgence” in the city’s service and consumption sectors.

“Restaurants and shops are bustling, with consumption levels notably higher. For instance, restaurants that were previously 20-30% full are now operating at 50-60% capacity. This is a very positive sign, as services and consumption historically account for over 60% of Ho Chi Minh City’s growth,” Mr. Tuan observed.

“The increase in consumption and services will significantly boost other sectors in the city. With this momentum, coupled with advancements in public investment, industry, and logistics, I anticipate Ho Chi Minh City’s GRDP growth to reach 11-12% in 2026,” Mr. Tuan asserted.