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According to official data from the Indian government, state-held rice stocks surged by nearly 12% year-on-year, reaching a record high in early December. This follows aggressive procurement of the new harvest by state agencies. The development heightens the likelihood that India, the world’s largest rice exporter, will further expand its exports, intensifying competition for key rice-exporting nations in the region, including Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan.
Specifically, as of December 1, India’s total state-held rice reserves, including unmilled paddy, stood at 57.57 million tons—an all-time high. This figure significantly surpasses the government’s annual target of 7.61 million tons for January 1. Additionally, wheat reserves also saw a sharp increase, reaching 29.14 million tons, compared to 20.6 million tons during the same period last year.
Industry traders attribute the surge in stockpiles primarily to state agencies being compelled to procure large volumes of rice from farmers, as market prices remain below the government-mandated Minimum Support Price (MSP). “Despite substantial government purchases, traders still hold considerable inventory for export,” noted a New Delhi-based trader working for an international trading firm.
Since the harvest season began on October 1, the Indian government has procured approximately 42.2 million tons of paddy from farmers. While export demand has yet to surge significantly, currency dynamics are favoring exporters. The Indian rupee hit a record low this month, enhancing profitability from overseas sales and enabling businesses to secure more competitive contracts.
India currently accounts for roughly 40% of global rice exports. The country lifted its final export restrictions on rice in March of last year, paving the way for a robust recovery in export activity. Statistics reveal that in the first 10 months of 2025, India’s rice exports soared by 37% year-on-year, reaching 18.49 million tons.
The All India Rice Exporters Association forecasts that India’s rice exports for the full year could rise by nearly 25% compared to last year, hitting a record 22.5 million tons. Coupled with ample wheat reserves, this stable food supply is expected to enable the Indian government to more effectively manage domestic food prices while strengthening the nation’s position in the global grain market.
Source: Reuters
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