On December 26, Mr. Tran Minh Tien, Director of the Market Research and Customer Insight Center at One Mount Group, stated that Hanoi’s apartment resale market in November 2025 entered a technical adjustment phase, reflecting a necessary cooling-off period after a prolonged growth cycle.
Mr. Tien cited a One Mount Group report indicating that the total number of resale transactions across Hanoi in November 2025 reached approximately 6,100, an 18% decrease compared to October.
Despite this decline, the figure remains higher than the 2025 annual average, suggesting the market has not entered a deep downturn. Notably, the reduction was not uniform, with clear segmentation by area, segment, and customer group.
The secondary apartment market recorded around 3,100 transactions, a 22% drop from the previous month. The residential and low-rise segments saw a milder decrease of about 10%. Although significantly impacted, high-rise apartments remained a cornerstone, accounting for over 50% of total transactions and leading the secondary market for the sixth consecutive month.
Hanoi apartments cool down
According to Mr. Tran Minh Tien, the market is not broadly weakening but entering a localized cleansing phase, primarily in areas with high speculative activity. Following a period of strong speculative capital inflows from mid-year, the market began facing multiple adverse factors.
Specifically, since October 2025, interest rates have trended upward. In November, several commercial banks raised deposit rates by 0.8–1.2 percentage points, bringing the average to approximately 5.64% per annum. As of November 21, the banking system’s credit balance increased by about 16% compared to late 2024, while deposits rose only 12%, reflecting growing liquidity pressure and capital costs.
Additionally, many home loans disbursed in late 2023 and early 2024 are reaching the end of their principal grace periods, causing a sharp increase in principal and interest repayment obligations. Facing heightened financial pressure, highly leveraged investors are restructuring cash flows and even accepting lower selling prices. However, in a more cautious market, finding buyers remains challenging.
Market Rebalancing
From a mid-term perspective, Mr. Tran Minh Tien views the 2025 year-end adjustment as a necessary technical correction to rebalance the market. Historical data shows a similar adjustment in late 2024, lasting until the end of Q1 2025, before the market rebounded and grew in Q2 and Q3.
Mr. Tien predicts a similar scenario in 2026 but with a healthier market structure. Short-term speculative capital will continue to diminish, while genuine demand and long-term investors will take the lead. Dependence on bank leverage is expected to decrease significantly, fostering more stable and sustainable market liquidity in the new cycle.
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