“Brainteaser: Unraveling the Mystery of the New Coffee Sensation”

As the year draws to a close, Vietnam’s coffee-growing regions are bustling with harvesting activities, aiming to complete the season before the Lunar New Year, except for a few small areas like the jackfruit coffee in Quang Tri.

High Labor Costs, Delayed Harvest

Mrs. Nguyen Thi Chien (Quang Ngai province) shared that with her 5 hectares of Robusta coffee, her family faced significant challenges in finding laborers this year, only finishing the harvest recently. “Last year, laborers were paid 250,000 VND/day, but this year it’s 300,000 VND/day. Hiring daily workers slows down the harvesting process and increases costs compared to contracted harvesting, but they take better care of the coffee gardens, ensuring next year’s yield,” Mrs. Chien explained.

Mrs. Chien noted that this year’s yield is slightly lower than last year, at around 13 tons, with about 7 tons remaining from the previous season. “Coffee prices are so unpredictable; last season, we sold half at 110,000 VND/kg and 130,000 VND/kg, but then prices kept dropping, so we held onto the rest,” she said.

In Lam Dong, most coffee gardens hire laborers on a contract basis, with costs ranging from 1,500 to 2,000 VND/kg, compared to 1,000 to 1,200 VND/kg last season. Mr. Le Quang, a local farmer, mentioned that most small farmers sell fresh coffee immediately after harvesting, regardless of the price, as they lack storage space and need money for living expenses and debt repayment.

Medium-sized households sell about 20% of their yield and store the rest with agents, waiting for better prices. “Coffee prices fluctuate constantly and are hard to predict. A good harvest is one thing, but timing the sale right determines profit. Last season, we were lucky to sell coffee near its peak price of 130,000 VND/kg. Still, we set aside 1/3 of our yield for roasting and retailing to consumers,” Mr. Quang said.

Mr. Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association (Dak Lak), confirmed the labor shortage has delayed harvesting. However, this has led to a positive outcome: the coffee is picked ripe and overripe, improving its quality. “This season’s yield is expected to match or exceed last year’s by about 5%. With the current peak harvesting, price drops are normal; only in 2024 did unusual factors cause prices to rise during the main season,” Mr. Minh observed.

According to Mr. Minh, most farmers sell about 20% of their yield at the beginning of the season, and only financially stable households store their coffee. “Farmers should sell in batches based on demand, avoid speculation, and maintain relationships with regular customers to ensure stability,” Mr. Minh advised.

Where Are Coffee Prices Headed?

Mr. Phan Minh Thong, CEO of Phuc Sinh Joint Stock Company, predicts that despite a good harvest, prices will remain favorable, though lower than record levels. Global coffee stockpiles are low, which will drive prices up. “For businesses like ours, abundant supply and cooling prices will stimulate demand. I believe this season benefits both farmers and businesses,” Mr. Thong forecasted.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) December report projects global coffee production for 2025-2026 to reach a record 10.728 million tons, up 2% from the previous season, thanks to Vietnam’s recovery and record yields in Indonesia and Ethiopia, offsetting losses in Brazil and Colombia.

Global coffee consumption is also expected to hit a record 10.434 million tons, up 1.3%, while global stockpiles will drop to a 5-year low of 1.2 million tons. This will keep coffee prices high without overheating. Last season, reduced supply and increased consumption caused prices to break records.

Speaking with *Bao Nguoi Lao Dong*, Mr. Do Ha Nam, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (VICOFA), noted that Vietnam currently dominates global coffee supply. The situation may change by May 2026 when Brazil begins its harvest. “This season’s Robusta prices are at least 80,000 VND/kg, doubling farmers’ profits compared to production costs,” Mr. Nam stated.