The government’s decision to adjust and increase the economic growth target for 2025 to over 8% clearly demonstrates its commitment and efforts to successfully achieve the socio-economic development goals for the 2021-2025 period. (Photo: Vietnam+)
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As 2025 draws to a close, international organizations forecast Vietnam’s Q4 growth at an impressive 7.8%, solidifying its position as Southeast Asia’s leader. However, projections for 2026 are more cautious, as Vietnam’s highly open economy faces global cooling pressures.
Impressive Growth Momentum from 2025
According to reports from the General Statistics Office, while international organizations vary in their specific growth forecasts, they unanimously agree that Vietnam’s 2025 growth will be among the highest in Southeast Asia.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is the most optimistic, predicting Vietnam’s 2025 growth at 7.4%. The World Bank (WB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast 6.6% and 6.5%, respectively. Even the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), known for its conservative outlook, projects 6.2%. In contrast, neighboring countries like the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia are expected to grow between 4.1% and 5.4%.
However, these organizations express caution about 2026 prospects. Aggregated data indicates a downward adjustment in Vietnam’s growth rate for the coming year.
ADB reports that after peaking at 7.4% in 2025, Vietnam’s growth is expected to drop to 6.4% in 2026. Similarly, WB forecasts a decline from 6.6% to 6.1%. Notably, IMF predicts a sharper drop from 6.5% in 2025 to 5.6% in 2026. OECD maintains its 6.2% forecast for both years, indicating stability without significant breakthroughs.
According to ADB, after peaking at 7.4% in 2025, Vietnam’s growth is projected to slow to 6.4% in 2026. (Photo: Vietnam+)
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This adjustment is primarily attributed to the expected global economic slowdown. Specifically, global growth in 2026 is anticipated to be lower than in 2025 as temporary drivers from the previous year fade. IMF predicts global growth will drop from 3.2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, while WB forecasts a decline from 2.8% to 2.4%.
Additionally, Vietnam’s major trading partners are expected to face challenges. The U.S. economy is projected to slow from 2% in 2025 to 1.7% (ADB) or 2.1% (IMF) in 2026. Notably, China, a key export market for Vietnam, is expected to continue its downturn, with growth falling to around 4.2%–4.4% in 2026 (IMF and WB projections).
Risks from Economic Openness
As a highly open economy dependent on trade, Vietnam is vulnerable to external fluctuations. OECD warns that higher trade barriers and policy instability pose significant risks to Vietnam’s 2026 economic outlook.
IMF identifies five global economic risks that could directly impact Vietnam: rising trade protectionism, AI-driven asset bubbles, vulnerabilities in the global financial system, labor supply shocks in developed nations, and geopolitical uncertainties.
Furthermore, trade fragmentation and tensions among economic powers could disrupt supply chains, affecting foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports—two pillars of Vietnam’s growth. Internal factors such as natural disasters and climate change (e.g., late-2025 floods) are also critical variables in 2026 economic management.
Although 2026 projections are more subdued compared to 2025’s peak, Vietnam’s forecasted growth remains high relative to many nations in a volatile global context. International organizations emphasize that in 2026, alongside pursuing growth, Vietnam must strengthen macroeconomic sustainability and enhance resilience to external shocks.
The manufacturing sector grew by 10.3%, the highest increase compared to the same period in 2020-2024, showcasing strong momentum from the production sector. (Photo: Vietnam+)
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Hanh Nguyen
– 20:25 05/01/2026
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