Vietnam’s Path to Development: Why 9-10% Growth Is Non-Negotiable, According to Dr. Trần Du Lịch

At the 4th Vietnam Economic Forum 2025, organized by the Labor Newspaper with the theme: “Macroeconomic Stability, Implementing Reforms: Foundation for 2026 Growth,” Dr. Tran Du Lich provided an overview of the socio-economic situation in 2025 and forecasts for 2026.

Firstly, post-Covid, the government and Ho Chi Minh City have adopted a growth strategy based on three pillars: domestic market, exports, and public investment. Vietnam has successfully achieved its recovery goals and addressed post-Covid challenges.

These growth pillars remain positive and continue to drive progress. Despite global economic slowdowns, Vietnam’s economy has grown impressively, reaching 8%, with ambitions to hit 10% in the new era.

Dr. Tran Du Lich highlighted a persistent issue: the low localization rate in exports, which remains a significant macroeconomic challenge. Vietnam often acts as an assembler, reaping minimal benefits from global value chains.

Since joining the WTO in 2007, Vietnam’s exports have surged. In 2007, with 1.3% of the global population, Vietnam accounted for only 0.3% of world exports. By 2024, this share rose to 1.6%, despite its population dropping to 1.25% of the global total.

However, export-driven growth has limits. Vietnam is approaching a threshold where further export expansion becomes challenging, necessitating new strategies for sustainable development.

Public investment remains a key driver, as evidenced by the December 19, 2025, launch of 234 major projects worth 3.4 trillion VND, with over 80% from private sources. Balancing public and private investment remains a critical challenge.

While public investment is essential, its role as a catalyst for private investment needs reevaluation to enhance its effectiveness. Opportunity costs in prioritizing sectors must also be considered.

Domestic market growth, alongside exports, has been robust. However, achieving double-digit growth requires new drivers, such as technological innovation and competitive institutional frameworks.

Recent legislative reforms aim to foster competition, which is crucial for future growth. If successful, these measures could enable Vietnam to achieve its ambitious growth targets.

Balancing growth with macroeconomic stability is a longstanding challenge. Since 2011, Vietnam has navigated inflation while promoting growth, a feat achieved through strategic credit policies.

Dr. Can Van Luc warned that high credit growth (18-19%) could lead to excessive money supply. Dr. Tran Du Lich noted that while CPI remains low (3%), asset inflation poses risks, particularly in real estate.

In volatile global conditions, maintaining macroeconomic stability is paramount. Fiscal and monetary policies must be coordinated to stimulate growth effectively while managing inflation risks.

Redirecting credit flows toward productive sectors like manufacturing, infrastructure, and logistics is essential for sustainable growth and macroeconomic stability.

Dr. Tran Du Lich emphasized Vietnam’s ability to resolve complex challenges, even in difficult circumstances, expressing confidence in achieving its growth objectives.

“Vietnam’s goal of double-digit growth is non-negotiable. Without 9-10% growth over the next few decades, becoming a developed nation remains a distant dream. With the demographic window closing, this is a national imperative,” Dr. Tran Du Lich stressed.

The digital era offers a unique opportunity for Vietnam. By leveraging Industry 4.0 and enhancing institutional capacity, Vietnam can achieve high, sustainable growth and fulfill its aspirations.