Observing the trading dynamics of the morning session on January 9th, bank stocks surged, spearheading the upward trajectory of the VN-Index. As of 10:00 AM, the top five stocks positively influencing the index were CTG, BID, VCB, BSR, and GAS.
Vietcombank’s VCB shares rose nearly 4%, trading around VND 66,000 per share. Both CTG and BID saw increases of approximately 3%. While VCB remains about 5% below its historical peak, CTG’s performance is notable, trading at its highest level since its HOSE listing, nearing VND 40,000 per share.
If CTG continues its upward trend today, it will mark four consecutive sessions of gains, rising from around VND 35,500 per share, a 10% increase, making it the most robust performer among bank stocks since the start of 2026. Alongside its price appreciation, CTG’s liquidity has significantly improved, with substantial capital inflows. The January 8th session recorded the highest liquidity in the past three years.
The upward momentum of CTG, alongside VCB and BID, aligns with the recent rally in state-owned enterprise stocks. The first trading week of 2026 witnessed strong gains in blue-chip stocks such as GAS, BVH, BSR, and GVR, with several sessions hitting the upper limit.
This positive trend continued in the morning session following the Politburo’s issuance of Resolution 79 on state economic development. Resolution 79 aims to position the state economy as a critical component of the socialist-oriented market economy, ensuring macroeconomic stability, major economic balances, strategic development guidance, and national defense and security.
Specifically for the banking sector, Resolution 79 sets a goal of having at least three state-owned commercial banks among the top 100 banks in Asia by total assets. It also aims to develop four leading state-owned commercial banks, pioneering in technology, governance, scale, market share, and market regulation capabilities within the banking system.
According to the latest updates, as of the end of 2025, VietinBank’s total assets exceeded USD 100 billion, placing it among the largest banks in Asia.
Coupled with expectations of a breakthrough for state-owned commercial banks following the implementation of Resolution 79, the “king” stocks surged as securities firms issued positive forecasts for Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings.
MBS Securities predicts VietinBank’s 2025 after-tax profit could grow by 29%, outpacing BIDV’s projected 10% and Vietcombank’s 6%. Specifically, MBS forecasts VietinBank’s pre-tax profit to rise by 29.3% in 2025, reaching VND 41 trillion, 9% above the set target.
For 2026–2027, VNDirect’s research team forecasts CTG’s profit growth to remain high, at 22.7% in 2026 and 21.9% in 2027. VietinBank’s profit growth is driven by multiple factors.
VNDirect projects VietinBank’s 2026 credit growth at 16%, supported by robust public investment and increased capital demand from large-scale infrastructure projects. “With a leading market share in corporate lending (12.43%) and long-standing expertise in FDI lending, CTG is well-positioned to sustain growth,” VNDirect’s analysis report states.
Additionally, VNDirect believes that debt recovery, the transfer of Ciputra Towers, and the gold business will boost non-interest income in 2026. The research team expects VietinBank to complete the tower transfers and recognize significant profits in 2026.
“In our view, the Ciputra project constitutes a significant portion of CTG’s current construction in progress in the North, valued at approximately VND 5.4 trillion as of June 2025, along with VND 850 billion in land-use fees paid since 2009. Given the substantial increase in land values since then, transferring the project now could generate considerable revenue for VietinBank,” a VNDirect analyst noted in the report.
Regarding gold trading, commercial banks require a charter capital of at least VND 50 trillion and a gold trading license to qualify for gold bar production permits. VietinBank meets the capital requirement and owns a subsidiary licensed for gold trading and processing.
According to VNDirect’s report, during the 9M2025 analyst meeting, VietinBank announced it had prepared the necessary documentation to apply for a gold bar production license and is ready to participate in the gold trading platform operated by the State Bank of Vietnam, if established. This gold-related business is expected to further contribute to VietinBank’s non-interest income growth in 2026.
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