Forecasts from the Centre for Economics and Business Research and the International Monetary Fund project Vietnam’s GDP to surge from its current $450-490 billion to approximately $1.41 trillion by 2039. This growth trajectory positions Vietnam among the world’s top 25 economies, contingent on sustained momentum.
The 1T Summit, hosted by Vietnam Vanguard in Ho Chi Minh City on January 7, convened over 400 senior leaders, policymakers, and global investors to deliberate on Vietnam’s critical decade ahead.
Discussions centered on finance, innovation, and human capital as the cornerstone pillars for achieving this ambitious milestone amidst escalating geopolitical tensions and global economic shifts.
Addressing the summit, US Consul General in Ho Chi Minh City, Melissa Brown, highlighted 2025 as a landmark year, marking three decades of diplomatic ties between Vietnam and the United States. She emphasized the exponential growth in bilateral trade, soaring from hundreds of millions in the 1990s to over $150 billion today.
Ms. Brown reaffirmed the US Embassy in Hanoi, the US Consulate General in Ho Chi Minh City, and the American business community’s commitment to supporting Vietnam’s economic aspirations.
“The United States is keen to strengthen our partnership with Vietnam in pursuit of these goals,” she stated, adding that the US remains dedicated to leveraging American innovation and collaborating with Vietnamese partners to enhance the domestic business environment.
Shifting Focus: From FDI Attraction to Capital Efficiency
The pursuit of a $1 trillion economy has shifted national discourse from merely attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to prioritizing capital efficiency. During a panel discussion on reforms and capital flows shaping Vietnam’s economic future, experts explored strategies to navigate rising capital costs and increasingly selective global investors.
Do Lan Anh, General Partner at ABB Private Equity, highlighted the tension between liquidity and trust. While liquidity persists across markets, deal completion rates suffer from diminished confidence following recent bond and foreign exchange market volatility. Trinh Quynh Giao, CEO of PVI Asset Management, echoed this sentiment, noting that while the State Bank of Vietnam’s 20% credit growth target for 2025 provides short-term liquidity, long-term stability requires robust structural reforms.
To rebuild trust, Ms. Giao proposed three key initiatives: establishing an International Financial Center for a robust legal framework, mandating credit ratings and International Financial Reporting Standards for transparency, and upgrading Vietnam’s stock market to secondary emerging market status to mitigate risks for global investors.
From a project developer’s perspective, Peter R. Ryder, Group Executive Chairman of Indochina Capital, emphasized that Vietnam’s primary challenge lies not in borrowing costs but in protracted approval processes. Projects that should take 18 months now span up to four years, eroding returns and diminishing competitiveness compared to European or US markets.
Nirukt Sapru, Chairman of Jardine Matheson (Vietnam), underscored the investment scale required for 10% annual GDP growth—up to $220 billion annually, or 40% of GDP. Vietnam must improve its Incremental Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR) to generate greater economic output per unit of capital. Without attractive returns and reduced legal risks, capital will gravitate toward more developed markets.
Supporting Vietnamese Enterprises in Overseas IPOs
In an interview with VnEconomy / Vietnam Economic Times, Jesse Choi, Regional Director for Southeast Asia at the Sunwah Group, discussed Vietnam’s evolving role in global supply chain realignment and growing interest from Hong Kong and Chinese investors.
As production shifts from China, Vietnam’s strategic location, political stability, and robust workforce make it an attractive hub for regional manufacturing and investment.
However, Mr. Choi noted that while Vietnam’s workforce is industrious, a skilled labor shortage remains a significant hurdle. Compared to Thailand and Malaysia, which have established automotive and semiconductor industries, Vietnam is still ascending the value chain, transitioning from labor-intensive sectors like footwear and textiles. Addressing this gap requires targeted investment in vocational training and technical education.
Sunwah is advancing initiatives focused on human capital development and capital market access. The group implements vocational training programs emphasizing technology transfer, particularly in high-technology and semiconductor fields.
“We train vocational school teachers in China and bring them to Vietnam to impart advanced skills, ensuring graduates are job-ready for high-technology roles,” Mr. Choi explained.
Regarding high-technology adoption, Mr. Choi stressed that high-quality FDI flows only when market demand is sufficient. Low order volumes limit factories to assembly operations to meet localization requirements. Only when market scale expands will enterprises invest in modern machinery and technology transfer.
Through its Hong Kong-listed subsidiary Sunwah Kingsway, the Group supports Vietnamese enterprises seeking Hong Kong listings. In 2018, Sunwah led in IPOs for small and medium-sized enterprises.
“We are considering supporting several Vietnamese companies, including those in advertising, to list in Hong Kong,” Mr. Choi said. “However, the Hong Kong Exchange requires three consecutive years of profitability, necessitating robust performance from Vietnamese firms.”
Mr. Choi also highlighted Hong Kong’s role as a gateway for international capital and a bridge to the Chinese market. Listing in Hong Kong not only facilitates capital raising but also enhances global brand prestige, as seen with VinFast’s Nasdaq listing.
The panel concluded by identifying four strategic pillars for the decade ahead: sovereign credit rating upgrades, administrative streamlining, infrastructure development, and key sector liberalization. While Ms. Giao emphasized that achieving an investment-grade credit rating by 2030 would reduce capital costs, Mr. Sapru stressed that high returns and social progress are not mutually exclusive. Efficient capital allocation into infrastructure and affordable housing aligns investor returns with national development goals.
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