Warrant Market Outlook for January 12-16, 2026: Short-Term Prospects Deteriorating

At the close of trading on January 9, 2026, the market saw 71 stocks rise, 159 fall, and 15 remain unchanged. Foreign investors resumed net selling, with a total net sell-off of 1.66 billion VND.

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I. MARKET TRENDS IN WARRANTS

By the close of trading on January 9, 2026, the market saw 71 gainers, 159 decliners, and 15 unchanged stocks.

Market Breadth Over the Last 20 Sessions. Unit: Percentage

Source: VietstockFinance

During the January 9, 2025 session, sellers dominated the market, driving down prices for most warrant codes. Notably, the major warrant codes in the declining group were CVHM2511, CVHM2512, CVPB2513, CSTB2515, and CVIC2511.

Source: VietstockFinance

Total market volume on January 9 reached 52.77 million CW, down 11.73%; trading value hit 94.97 billion VND, a 29.3% decrease compared to January 8. Among these, CSTB2528 led the market in both volume and trading value, with a total volume of 3.47 million CW, equivalent to 5.75 billion VND.

Foreign investors resumed net selling on January 9, with a total net sell-off of 1.66 billion VND. CFPT2525 and CMWG2511 were the two most heavily net-sold codes. For the week, foreign investors net bought over 7.84 billion VND.

Securities companies ACBS, VND, KIS, and SSI are currently the issuers with the most warrant codes in the market.

Source: VietstockFinance

II. MARKET STATISTICS

Source: VietstockFinance

III. WARRANT VALUATION

Based on the valuation method appropriate as of the starting date of January 12, 2026, the fair prices of warrants currently trading on the market are as follows:

Source: VietstockFinance

Note: Opportunity costs in the valuation model have been adjusted to align with the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free treasury bill rate (Government Treasury Bill) is replaced by the average deposit rate of major banks, with maturity adjustments suitable for each type of warrant.

According to the above valuation, CVHM2511 and CVHM2503 are currently the two most attractively priced warrant codes.

Warrant codes with higher effective gearing will experience greater fluctuations in response to underlying securities. Currently, CFPT2516 and CTCB2518 are the two warrant codes with the highest effective gearing in the market.

Economic Analysis & Market Strategy Division, Vietstock Consulting Department

– 17:58 January 11, 2026

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