A recent report from the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) cites data from China Customs, revealing that in the first 11 months of 2025, China spent nearly $7.2 billion to import over 1.79 million tons of durian from Southeast Asian countries. This marks a 17.2% increase in volume and a 5% rise in value compared to the same period in 2024.
Durian exports in 2026 are expected to face significant challenges.
Currently, Thailand is the leading supplier of durian to the Chinese market, closely followed by Vietnam. Thailand exported over 903,000 tons, valued at $3.9 billion, while Vietnam secured the second position with 884,600 tons, worth more than $3.24 billion.
In terms of market share, Vietnam holds 49% in volume and 45% in value, whereas Thailand accounts for 50.4% in volume and 54.4% in value. During this period, the proportion of Vietnamese durian in China’s total fresh durian imports also increased to 49.3%, up from 47% in the same period in 2024.
This has sparked optimism that with accelerated efforts, Vietnamese durian could potentially lead the market share in China.
Mr. Nguyễn Quang Hiếu, Deputy Director of the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment), stated that the durian industry is now fundamentally prepared to enter a more stable phase, particularly in meeting the increasingly stringent technical requirements of the market.
Challenges Ahead for Durian Exports in 2026
“We are fully equipped to meet all requirements from the importing country. Domestic laboratories are also encouraged to actively participate in the inspection and evaluation process as mandated by the Chinese coordinating agency,” said Mr. Hiếu.
Additionally, regulatory bodies are proactively addressing emerging issues, especially discrepancies in test results between the two parties during negotiations and recognition. These efforts will continue to ensure smooth, stable, and sustainable durian exports in the future.
However, regarding the forecast that Vietnamese durian exports will surpass Thailand’s, the representative from the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection cautiously noted that it may still be too early to predict a sustainable lead for Vietnam in the Chinese market.
As we move into 2026, durian exports are expected to face numerous challenges, including objective factors such as increasingly stringent requirements related to residues and technical warnings from the importing market.
From a professional standpoint, the Department advises production and export units to tightly control quality from the cultivation stage, enhancing accountability in product creation to maintain the reputation of Vietnamese durian in China.
The Deputy Director emphasized that China is no longer an “easy” market as it once was.
Amid China’s steady economic growth, the expanding middle class, and evolving consumer demands, there is a heightened focus on health, food safety, and product quality. This shift explains why China has introduced additional management measures and technical requirements to protect consumers.
Thailand Receives Unwelcome News
ASEAN experts predict that Vietnamese durian will surpass Thai and Malaysian durian in the Chinese market within the next three years.
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In the first seven months of the year, durian exports reached 476.13 thousand tons, valued at $1.6 billion. This remarkable performance translates to a 50.5% increase in volume and a 49.4% surge in value compared to the same period last year.
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The Thai market share in China has seen a decline from 76.21% in the first half of 2023 to 66.97% in the same period this year. A significant drop that warrants attention and strategic action.
