Expert Insights: Unveiling Two Oversold Stock Groups Poised for a Powerful Rebound

The VN-Index kicked off the first trading week of 2026 with a positive performance, both in terms of index points and liquidity. Closing at 1,867.9 points on January 9th, it marked an 83-point (+4.67%) increase from the previous week, setting a new all-time high. Trading value on the HSX surpassed the 20-session average, reaching its highest level in over two months, reflecting a positive sentiment among investors and a strengthening market.

Foreign investors initially sold off at the beginning of the week but returned to net buying by the end. Over the five sessions, they net bought VND 590 billion across the market.

VN-Index Eyes New Peaks

(Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa, Director of Analysis, Agriseco Securities)

Vietnam’s stock market started 2026 on a high note. The VN-Index consistently reached new highs during the first trading week, indicating strong investor confidence. According to Agriseco experts, this surge can be attributed to two main factors:

First,

a return of capital from both domestic and foreign investors. This is evident in the improved liquidity during the first week of 2026, with foreign investors also turning net buyers, significantly boosting market sentiment.

Second,

the early year has seen a string of positive news supporting the market’s rise. Interbank liquidity tensions have eased as overnight interbank interest rates declined. Additionally, Resolution 79-NQ/TW on state economic development will provide flexibility for state-owned enterprises in restructuring, improving governance, and increasing transparency. This has attracted investment to large-cap stocks, particularly state-owned enterprises and state-owned banks, driving the market upward.

”

If this momentum continues, and barring any unexpected events, in an optimistic scenario, the VN-Index could reach 1,950–2,000 points in the first half of 2026 and peak at around 2,100 points this year

,” Mr. Khoa forecasts.

This projection is based on (1) a 15% growth in market-wide profits in 2026 compared to the same period last year; and (2) the VN-Index trading at a reasonable P/E ratio of around 16 times.

Regarding liquidity, the expert notes that current capital flows are positive, as evidenced by strong liquidity, indicating high investor interest and participation. Notably, capital is not concentrated in a few leading stocks but is spreading across various sectors, from banking and oil to technology and retail.

Furthermore, foreign investors have consistently returned to net buying recently. This resurgence could signal a positive outlook on the market’s medium- to long-term prospects from foreign institutions. The selectivity of capital is also evident, with companies boasting strong fundamentals and profit growth prospects attracting investment.

However, it remains to be seen whether this is sustainable capital or short-term capital anticipating business results. Currently, Mr. Khoa assesses the capital flow as positive and supportive of a healthy market.

With the VN-Index operating at historic highs and market valuations nearing 17 times P/E, Mr. Khoa recommends an investment strategy focused on holding leading stocks with strong fundamentals while tightly managing risk, rather than broadly increasing stock exposure.

Specifically, holding leading stocks with strong fundamentals is prioritized, as this group is attracting significant short-term capital and is likely to continue driving the market. However, for stocks that have risen quickly in a short period, investors should avoid chasing high prices and gradually reduce exposure as stocks approach expected profit margins to realize gains, given the potential for short-term market volatility.

Additionally, maintaining a reasonable cash ratio, waiting for adjustments or accumulation to increase stock positions, will help investors remain proactive in the face of short-term fluctuations and preserve gains.

Two Overbought Stock Groups Poised for Recovery

(Nguyen Thai Hoc – Securities Analyst, Pinetree)

Last week, the VN-Index saw a surprisingly positive performance, surpassing most experts’ and investors’ expectations with a strong surge to new all-time highs and liquidity reaching nearly VND 166 trillion—the highest since early November, over two months ago.

Mr. Hoc highlights that this rally was clearly led by state-owned stocks, starting with the Oil & Gas sector, followed by state-owned banks, then Rubber – Electricity, and most recently the Viettel group with stocks like VTP, VGI, and CTR.

In a market lacking new leadership to replace the Vingroup group, the issue of state capital divestment and the issuance of Resolution 79 have injected new energy.

This catalyst has drawn significant capital back, pushing up prices for many state-owned stocks such as GAS, PLX, BSR in the Oil & Gas sector and VCB, BID, CTG in the Banking sector.

However, despite the VN-Index reaching historic highs, market strength remains uneven. Capital has not yet flowed into high-beta groups like Securities and Real Estate. Many stocks in these sectors continued to hit new lows last week, reflecting significant divergence: the market is no longer reliant on the Vingroup group for gains, but there is no widespread consensus across all sectors.

Moving into the new trading week, the Pinetree expert believes the market will likely maintain its positive momentum. State-owned stocks are expected to continue attracting capital, with potential rotation among sectors like Oil & Gas, Banking, Telecommunications (Viettel), Rubber, and Electricity. These will remain the main pillars supporting the VN-Index.

For the Vingroup group, the probability of a sharp decline is very low at this time. This group is likely to be price-supported to bolster the overall index, though it will no longer lead the market.

Meanwhile,

high-beta groups like Securities and Real Estate

are likely to enter a more pronounced recovery phase. After last week’s deep decline and new lows, these groups are now oversold.

”

There may still be slight declines early in the week, but after small investors are forced to cut losses, capital will gradually shift to state-owned enterprises—and this shedding process could open up a more positive recovery in the second half of the week

,” Mr. Hoc predicts.

Overall, next week’s market is expected to remain positive with divergence, where state-owned enterprises continue to be the focus, and Securities and Real Estate have recovery potential after significant discounts.