The State Bank of Vietnam has issued a directive to credit institutions regarding credit growth control for 2026. According to the new formula, the maximum credit balance as of December 31, 2026, is determined with a multiplier of only 2.6%, significantly lower than the 3.5% applied in 2025.
Specifically, the maximum credit balance is calculated by adding the balance as of December 31, 2025, to the additional growth based on the credit institution’s 2024 rating, after excluding any excess balance and loans sold in 2026 but not yet collected at the time of calculation.
Certain banks, such as those participating in mandatory acquisitions of weaker institutions, are prioritized for higher credit growth.
Based on estimates, with bank ratings currently ranging from 1 to 5 points and most institutions rated between 4 and 5, credit growth in 2026 is likely to range between 9% and 13%. The majority of banks will be assigned growth targets of around 12-13%.
Banks prioritized for higher credit growth include those involved in mandatory acquisitions of weaker institutions, such as Vietcombank, MB, HDBank, and VPBank, to support the restructuring process.
In addition to adjusting the calculation formula, the State Bank of Vietnam requires that in the first three months of 2026, the credit growth rate of each institution must not exceed 25% of the annual target. Institutions must also ensure capital adequacy and liquidity safety.
Notably, credit to the real estate sector remains tightly controlled. The growth rate of real estate credit for each institution in 2026 must not exceed its overall credit growth rate compared to the end of 2025. The State Bank will closely monitor both the growth rate and the proportion of real estate debt in each bank’s total debt.
If a credit institution fails to comply with these requirements, the State Bank may reduce its credit growth target for the year. These adjustments will be made based on ongoing monitoring, without requiring the institution to submit a formal request.
The State Bank directs credit institutions to conduct lending activities in line with their risk management capabilities, liquidity, and capital mobilization. Institutions must maintain all safety ratios, particularly liquidity and solvency indicators. Additionally, banks must enhance credit quality, ensure proper use of funds, and minimize the generation and increase of bad debts.
Regarding capital allocation, the State Bank emphasizes prioritizing credit for production, business, priority sectors, and economic growth drivers. Conversely, credit to high-risk sectors, particularly real estate, will remain under strict control.
In 2026, the State Bank commits to managing credit growth proactively and flexibly, closely monitoring macroeconomic developments, inflation, and the performance of individual credit institutions. Based on these factors, credit growth targets may be adjusted upward or downward as needed to support capital supply to the economy while ensuring banking system safety and macroeconomic stability.
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