Dr. Vo Tri Thanh: High Savings Rate, Yet Challenges Remain in Effective Investment Conversion

At the FChoice 2025 Awards Ceremony and the seminar titled “Double-Digit Economic Growth Drivers and Investment Opportunities in 2026,” organized by CafeF on the morning of January 13th, Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, Director of the Institute for Brand and Competition Strategy Research, shared his insights: “I have three key words: extraordinary, abnormal, and how to turn the extraordinary and abnormal into the ordinary. This is the story I want to share—lessons Vietnam has learned in 2025.”

The world is now in a state of uncertainty, driven by several factors. First, the geopolitical tensions between China and the United States. Second, climate change and natural disasters, as witnessed in 2025. Third, the rapid and unprecedented expansion of technological boundaries. Fourth, digital and green transformations, alongside the global economic restructuring led by major corporations. Additionally, there is the shift in population and urbanization.

“Never before has the intersection of politics, geopolitics, technology, and economics been so profound and complex. Never before has globalization, trade, investment, and rule-based systems faced such clashes. And never before have people spoken so much about both disasters and aspirations,” Dr. Thanh emphasized.

Dr. Thanh shared that during international conferences, he often encounters two critical questions.

The first question is: How can we survive, build resilience, and maintain trade growth in such a volatile global context?

The second question is: How can Vietnam continue its development path, given the long-term goals set for 2030–2045? Not only Vietnam but several ASEAN countries also face the risk of falling into the middle-income trap in the next 20–25 years if they do not take appropriate steps toward sustainable development.

To achieve this, there are numerous solutions and policies, but according to Dr. Thanh, several key points are essential.

First, Vietnam must navigate the international environment skillfully, especially amid the competition between China and the United States—two massive markets. Simultaneously, we must not overlook other markets such as the European Union, South Korea, Japan, and India.

The world is becoming more fragmented, with rising nationalism and protectionism. However, globalization, digitalization, investment flows, and trade continue to shift, particularly in Southeast Asia and Vietnam.

Our domestic market is also crucial. With a population of nearly 100 million and a rapidly growing middle class, Vietnam is a highly promising market for production, consumption, and investment, rivaling external markets.

Second, we must strengthen macroeconomic foundations. Macroeconomic stability is vital for three reasons.

The first reason is that without macroeconomic stability, effective support policies cannot be implemented.

The second reason is to create a foundation for resources to be allocated to production and business, generating real growth rather than speculative financial activities.

The third reason, which is critical, is to ensure social welfare and support vulnerable groups during challenging periods.

Vietnam’s recent lessons show that we have some policy flexibility. Our public debt is relatively safe, much lower than the permitted threshold. However, we cannot pursue high growth at any cost or chase short-term figures.

Currently, Vietnam’s investment-to-GDP ratio is over 30%, with private investment still having significant potential. We have a high savings rate, but converting it into effective investment remains limited. This is an issue of trust, institutions, and the business investment environment.

Third, institutional reform, infrastructure development, and enhancing human resource quality are essential.

Institutions are a critical link, challenging but necessary. Both hard and digital infrastructure are indispensable conditions. And people—high-quality human resources, talent, and innovation—are the determining factors in the long term.

“Vietnam’s reform and innovation journey has never stopped. We are entering a new phase, with higher demands for strategic autonomy and the ability to choose our development path in a volatile world,” Dr. Thanh emphasized.