Driving Export Growth in 2026: Strengthening Institutional Frameworks and Combating Origin Fraud

The year 2025 marked a significant milestone for Vietnam’s import-export activities, with the total trade turnover reaching approximately $930 billion, an 18.2% increase from 2024, equivalent to an absolute rise of $143 billion. Exports maintained a robust growth rate of 17%, outpacing many regional economies and surpassing the assigned targets, second only to the peak growth rate recorded between 2021 and 2025.

These figures reflect Vietnam’s resilience and economic expansion efforts following the challenges posed by the pandemic and supply chain disruptions. However, as 2026 begins, businesses and regulatory bodies recognize that last year’s achievements set the stage, but the goals ahead present even greater challenges.

According to Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), Vietnam’s total export turnover in 2026 is expected to grow by over 8% compared to 2025. Additionally, the trade surplus is anticipated to exceed $23 billion, a 15% increase from the previous year. These ambitious targets come amid emerging technical barriers and heightened standards in several key markets.

To address these challenges, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has outlined several key initiatives from the outset of the year, focusing on institutional enhancements, easing business hurdles, and fostering international partnerships to streamline export activities in the coming year.

Strengthening Legal Frameworks Amid Rapid Export Growth

A primary focus is the continued refinement of legal documents governing import-export activities. The Import-Export Department plans to draft four key decrees in 2026: a decree detailing provisions and measures for implementing the Law on Foreign Trade Management; a decree on rules of origin for goods under the same law; a decree outlining criteria for determining Vietnamese origin for domestically circulated goods; and a decree on rice export and import business, replacing existing regulations.

The department will also compile feedback from local authorities and relevant agencies to propose amendments or replacements for outdated circulars, ensuring alignment with market dynamics and business realities.

Mr. Hai emphasized that beyond legislative efforts, the department will recommend solutions to promote sustainable export growth. This includes collaborating with stakeholders to encourage Mexico to include Vietnamese steel plants in its list of eligible exporters, facilitating steel exports to the country.

Furthermore, the Import-Export Department will work with other units within the Ministry of Industry and Trade to assess Vietnam’s compliance with textile export commitments to Mexico, reporting to ministry leadership on necessary legal adjustments.

The department will also actively engage in negotiations to open new export markets and establish rules of origin under new Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Upgrading existing FTAs and advancing the Vietnam-U.S. Just Energy Transition Partnership are expected to create additional opportunities for Vietnamese exporters.

Tightening Origin Management

In 2026, managing product origin has become a critical focus. This is essential for businesses to leverage tariff benefits under FTAs and to meet the increasingly stringent oversight of importing markets.

Ms. Nguyen Thao Hien, Deputy Director of the Foreign Market Development Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), noted the volatile global trade environment with emerging barriers. Enhanced inter-agency coordination is crucial to combat illegal transshipment and origin fraud, particularly for agricultural products, food, and other closely monitored goods.

Since 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has prioritized state management of product origin. Key regulations, including Decree No. 146/2025/NĐ-CP and Circulars 38/2025/TT-BCT and 40/2025/TT-BCT, have been implemented, decentralizing authority to local bodies. Effective July 1, 2025, these measures enable 22 out of 34 provincial Departments of Industry and Trade to issue Certificates of Origin (C/O) more efficiently, reducing processing times and costs for businesses.

The C/O issuance system has been streamlined, with certain certification authorities transferred from organizations to regional Import-Export Management Offices, enhancing local autonomy and control over the certification process.

Stricter origin management is accompanied by risk alerts for goods prone to origin fraud or trade defense measures, such as plywood, furniture, steel, and artificial stone. Workshops and training sessions on FTA origin rules are being conducted to improve business compliance and utilization of tariff preferences.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade is also finalizing a draft decree to guide the implementation of the Law on Foreign Trade Management regarding product origin. Developed in collaboration with relevant ministries, including the Ministry of Public Security, this decree aims to ensure practicality and alignment with current practices.