Masan Group’s HOSE Listing: Unlocking Re-valuation Potential

According to analysts, this move is a crucial “key” that allows the market to more fully recognize the value of Masan Consumer in particular and the entire Masan Group ecosystem (HOSE: MSN) in general. This opens up room for revaluation in the medium to long term.

Unlocking Liquidity Constraints, Changing Valuation Benchmarks

In financial markets, the “conglomerate discount” phenomenon often occurs when a parent company’s market capitalization is lower than the combined fair value of its subsidiaries. In emerging markets, the core issue is not necessarily operational efficiency but liquidity barriers and listing standards.

Vietcap notes that Masan Consumer’s transition from UPCoM to HOSE acts as a “capital flow unlock,” enabling shares to trade in a more transparent environment and access a broader range of institutional investors and large investment funds. Historical data from 2020–2024 shows that average daily trading volumes typically increase by 200% within six months post-HOSE listing, alongside positive stock price trends.

In this context, MCH’s HOSE listing is seen as a foundational step, ensuring the company’s value is more accurately reflected rather than being constrained by UPCoM’s limited valuation framework.

Masan Consumer – A Consumer Pillar and Valuation Test for Masan Group

From a market perspective, Vietcap believes MCH’s HOSE listing benefits not only Masan Consumer shareholders but also prompts a revaluation of Masan Group (HOSE: MSN) using the sum-of-the-parts method.

Currently, Masan Group holds approximately 66% of Masan Consumer’s economic interest. Vietcap estimates this stake at around $5.7 billion, based on MCH’s pre-listing trading price. Notably, MSN’s market capitalization remains significantly lower than the value of its Masan Consumer stake alone, not to mention other major assets like WinCommerce, Masan MEATLife, Masan High-Tech Materials, and its Techcombank investment.

Vietcap views MCH’s HOSE listing as a “wake-up call,” forcing the market to reassess not only Masan Consumer’s value but also the entire Masan ecosystem, which is currently undervalued.

Post-HOSE listing, Vietcap predicts Masan Consumer could become HOSE’s largest consumer company by market cap (nearly $9 billion), ranking among the top 7 largest companies market-wide. This position unlocks structural benefits, including potential margin trading eligibility after six stable trading months—critical given retail investors’ dominance in market liquidity.

Longer term, MCH is likely to join the VN30 index and passive investment benchmarks like VanEck, Xtrackers, and potentially FTSE Emerging Markets (FTSE EM) as Vietnam nears market upgrade status. Vietcap sees this as a milestone Vietnam’s capital market has awaited for over a decade.

While index inclusion doesn’t yield immediate short-term gains, it enhances liquidity, expands institutional investor reach, and establishes new long-term valuation benchmarks.

Long-Term Growth Potential

Despite MCH’s pre-listing rally, Vietcap sees long-term upside as share prices fundamentally reflect multi-year profit growth.

Vietcap identifies 2025 as a pivotal year for Masan Consumer’s post-disruption distribution restructuring. From 2026 onward, growth drivers include product innovation, distribution upgrades, technology adoption, and international expansion.

Vietcap forecasts 15% revenue and 20% profit growth for MCH in 2026, with 16% compound profit growth from 2026–2028—attractive for a large-cap consumer firm with stable cash flows and consistent dividends.

Collectively, these factors position Masan Consumer’s HOSE listing as more than an isolated event. It’s a strategic move enabling fairer MCH valuation while unlocking MSN’s value via capital markets.

As liquidity improves and margin, index, and institutional capital criteria are met, the “conglomerate discount” paradox is likely to narrow. For long-term investors, MCH’s post-listing narrative centers on repositioning a leading consumer enterprise and the Masan ecosystem within Vietnam’s capital market landscape, rather than short-term volatility.