Where Will Banks Boost Revenue as Credit Targets Shrink?

Credit Tightens, Banks Shift Focus

This year, the State Bank of Vietnam has set a credit growth target of 15%, lower than in 2025. In 2025, the banking system injected nearly VND 2.99 quadrillion into the economy. With the 2026 target, approximately VND 2.8 quadrillion is expected to enter the market. Thus, this year’s credit flow is only about VND 190 trillion less than last year.

Speaking with Tiền Phong Newspaper, Mr. Phạm Hồng Hải, CEO of OCB Bank, analyzed that the message for credit growth this year is clear: there will be no loosening as seen in 2025. Therefore, banks may have lower credit limits compared to last year.

“However, in my opinion, this is a positive signal for the market. Instead of pursuing scale growth, we should focus on quality. Growth overly reliant on credit can lead to systemic risks like bad debt,” said Mr. Hải.

According to Mr. Hải, OCB has clearly defined its development focus as non-credit income growth, i.e., services and products beyond credit. While credit remains a growth driver, it is not OCB’s sole focus moving forward. Slower credit growth also helps mitigate macro risks.

Additionally, Mr. Hải emphasized that banks cannot be the sole capital providers for the economy.

“For banks, we understand that aggressively pushing medium to long-term loans impacts safety ratios due to liquidity risks. Banks must safeguard capital and liquidity at all costs; without liquidity, a bank cannot survive. Banks may only participate in partial capital provision, with the remainder handled through capital-raising transactions or advisory services, such as bond issuance for businesses,” Mr. Hải explained.

Diversifying Revenue Streams

Speaking with Tiền Phong Newspaper, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyễn Văn Phương from the University of Economics, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, believes the 15% credit growth target for this year is reasonable given the need to balance acceleration with macroeconomic stability and systemic safety. This growth rate provides sufficient space for banks to support businesses, provided capital is properly directed and accompanied by efforts from the production sector to enhance governance, financial transparency, and adapt to new credit regulations.

Consequently, businesses are reducing their reliance on credit growth and significant revenue from lending to focus on increasing income from other services. Currently, many banks are aggressively developing non-credit products and services, reaping substantial revenues in the trillions by leveraging digital banking utilities, payment card fees, credit card fees, fiduciary services, asset management consulting, securities investment income, and foreign exchange trading. This approach enables banks to develop comprehensively, reduce dependence on credit targets, minimize risks, and improve revenue structure sustainably.

Echoing this view, economist Nguyễn Văn Lộc noted that this year, fee income from payments, cards, bancassurance, foreign exchange, and digital banking services is expected to become a primary pillar of non-interest income. This revenue source is sustainable, less cyclical, and closely tied to banks’ long-term customer development strategies.