I. FUTURE CONTRACTS OF THE STOCK MARKET INDEX
I.1. Market Trends
On January 22, 2026, VN30 futures contracts saw a unanimous rise. Specifically, 41I1G2000 (I1G2000) increased by 0.43%, reaching 2,087 points; 41I1G3000 (I1G3000) rose by 0.19%, hitting 2,077.9 points; 41I1G6000 (I1G6000) climbed 0.53%, reaching 2,071 points; and 41I1G9000 (I1G9000) gained 0.44%, closing at 2,072 points. The underlying index, VN30-Index, ended the session at 2,082.35 points.
Similarly, VN100 futures contracts also experienced a collective uptrend on the same day. Notably, 41I2G2000 (I2G2000) surged by 0.72%, reaching 1,957 points; 41I2G3000 (I2G3000) advanced by 1.03%, closing at 1,958 points; 41I2G6000 (I2G6000) increased by 0.4%, hitting 1,947.1 points; and 41I2G9000 (I2G9000) rose by 0.98%, ending at 1,946.7 points. The underlying index, VN100-Index, concluded the session at 1,961.84 points.
During the January 22, 2026 session, the 41I1G2000 contract opened with a strong upward momentum, quickly transitioning into a prolonged tug-of-war, slightly favoring the Long side throughout the morning. In the afternoon session, selling pressure re-emerged, narrowing the earlier gains of I1G2000. However, buyers remained resilient, successfully recovering the contract to its reference level. Consequently, I1G2000 closed in the green, with a modest 9-point gain.
Intraday Chart of 41I1G2000
Source: https://stockchart.vietstock.vn
At the close, the basis of the I1G2000 contract reversed from the previous session, reaching 4.65 points. This shift indicates a resurgence in investor optimism.
Fluctuations of 41I1G2000 and VN30-Index
Source: VietstockFinance
Note: Basis is calculated as follows: Basis = Futures Contract Price – VN30-Index
Meanwhile, the basis of the I2G2000 contract narrowed compared to the previous session, reaching -4.84 points. This suggests a reduction in investor pessimism.
Fluctuations of 41I2G2000 and VN100-Index
Source: VietstockFinance
Note: Basis is calculated as follows: Basis = Futures Contract Price – VN100-Index
Trading volume and value in the derivatives market decreased by 10.47% and 9.59%, respectively, compared to the January 21, 2026 session. Specifically, the trading volume of I1G2000 dropped by 10.46%, with 296,942 contracts matched. The trading volume of I2G2000 fell by 56%, with only 44 contracts traded.
Foreign investors resumed net selling, with a total net selling volume of 821 contracts on January 22, 2026.
Daily Trading Volume Fluctuations in the Derivatives Market. Unit: Contracts
Source: VietstockFinance
I.2. Valuation of Futures Contracts
Based on the fair pricing method as of January 23, 2026, the fair price range for futures contracts currently trading in the market is as follows:
Summary Table of Derivatives Valuation for VN30-Index and VN100-Index
Source: VietstockFinance
Note: The opportunity cost in the pricing model has been adjusted to suit the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free treasury bill rate (government treasury bill) is replaced by the average deposit rate of major banks, with term adjustments suitable for each futures contract.
I.3. Technical Analysis of VN30-Index
On January 22, 2026, the VN30-Index continued its tug-of-war pattern, accompanied by a small-bodied candlestick formation. The erratic trading volume in recent sessions reflects investor instability. Currently, the index is retesting the October 2025 peak (equivalent to the 2,022-2,070 range), which was previously breached. The MACD indicator continues to decline after issuing a sell signal, indicating a weakening short-term outlook.
Technical Analysis Chart of VN30-Index
Source: VietstockUpdater
II. FUTURE CONTRACTS OF THE BOND MARKET
Based on the fair pricing method as of January 23, 2026, the fair price range for government bond futures contracts currently trading in the market is as follows:
Summary Table of Government Bond Futures Valuation
Source: VietstockFinance
Note: The opportunity cost in the pricing model has been adjusted to suit the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free treasury bill rate (government treasury bill) is replaced by the average deposit rate of major banks, with term adjustments suitable for each futures contract.
According to the above valuation, the 41BAG9000 contract is currently attractively priced. Investors may focus on and consider buying these futures contracts in the near future, as they present a favorable market opportunity.
Economic Analysis & Market Strategy Department, Vietstock Consulting
– 18:28 22/01/2026
