I. FUTURES CONTRACTS OF THE STOCK MARKET INDEX
I.1. Market Trends
On January 26, 2026, all VN30 futures contracts experienced declines. Specifically, 41I1G2000 (I1G2000) dropped by 1.93% to 2,036 points; 41I1G3000 (I1G3000) fell by 1.38% to 2,047.3 points; 41I1G6000 (I1G6000) decreased by 2.04% to 2,035 points; and 41I1G9000 (I1G9000) declined by 2.21% to 2,032.3 points. The underlying index, VN30-Index, closed at 2,032.28 points.
Similarly, VN100 futures contracts also saw unanimous declines. The 41I2G2000 (I2G2000) contract fell by 1.87% to 1,914.1 points; 41I2G3000 (I2G3000) dropped by 1.23% to 1,920 points; 41I2G6000 (I2G6000) decreased by 2.09% to 1,913 points; and 41I2G9000 (I2G9000) declined by 2.04% to 1,920 points. The VN100-Index closed at 1,909.38 points.
During the January 26, 2026 session, the 41I1G2000 contract entered a tug-of-war phase shortly after opening, with short sellers gradually gaining dominance, causing the contract to plummet throughout the morning session. In the afternoon, selling pressure intensified, and buyers were virtually absent, exacerbating the decline until the close, with a final drop of 40 points.
Intraday Chart of 41I1G2000
Source: https://stockchart.vietstock.vn
At the close, the basis of the I1G2000 contract reversed from the previous session, reaching 3.72 points, indicating a resurgence of investor optimism.
Fluctuations of 41I1G2000 and VN30-Index
Source: VietstockFinance
Note: Basis is calculated as: Basis = Futures Contract Price – VN30-Index
Meanwhile, the basis of the I2G2000 contract also reversed, reaching 4.72 points, reflecting renewed investor confidence.
Fluctuations of 41I2G2000 and VN100-Index
Source: VietstockFinance
Note: Basis is calculated as: Basis = Futures Contract Price – VN100-Index
Trading volume and value in the derivatives market increased by 4.61% and 2.77%, respectively, compared to the session on January 23, 2026. Specifically, the trading volume of I1G2000 rose by 4.47% to 264,755 contracts, while I2G2000 volume fell by 14.55% to 47 contracts.
Foreign investors continued to net sell, with a total net selling volume of 1,368 contracts on January 26, 2026.
Daily Trading Volume Fluctuations in the Derivatives Market. Unit: Contracts
Source: VietstockFinance
I.2. Valuation of Futures Contracts
Based on the fair pricing method as of January 27, 2026, the reasonable price range for actively traded futures contracts is as follows:
Summary Table of Derivatives Valuation for VN30-Index and VN100-Index
Source: VietstockFinance
Note: Opportunity costs in the pricing model are adjusted to suit the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free treasury bill rate (government treasury bill) is replaced by the average deposit rate of major banks, with term adjustments for each futures contract.
I.3. Technical Analysis of VN30-Index
On January 26, 2026, the VN30-Index continued its second consecutive decline, accompanied by a Big Black Candle pattern and increased trading volume, signaling heightened investor pessimism.
Additionally, the index fell below the Middle line of the Bollinger Bands, while the Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone after previously issuing a sell signal. This suggests a deteriorating short-term outlook.
Should the short-term correction persist, the 61.8% Fibonacci Projection level (around 1,965-1,980 points) is expected to provide strong support in upcoming sessions.
Technical Analysis Chart of VN30-Index
Source: VietstockUpdater
II. FUTURES CONTRACTS OF THE BOND MARKET
Based on the fair pricing method as of January 27, 2026, the reasonable price range for actively traded government bond futures contracts is as follows:
Summary Table of Government Bond Futures Valuation
Source: VietstockFinance
Note: Opportunity costs in the pricing model are adjusted to suit the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free treasury bill rate (government treasury bill) is replaced by the average deposit rate of major banks, with term adjustments for each futures contract.
According to the above valuation, no contracts are currently attractively priced. Investors are advised to monitor the market and await more favorable entry points in the future.
Economic Analysis & Market Strategy Department, Vietstock Consulting
– 18:28 26/01/2026
Derivatives Market Update 20/01/2026: Short-Term Risks Persist
On January 19, 2026, the VN30 and VN100 futures contracts experienced a mixed trading session, with alternating gains and losses. The VN30-Index closed higher, forming a small-bodied candlestick pattern. Accompanying this was a decline in trading volume, which fell below the 20-session average, indicating investor hesitation and uncertainty in the market.
Derivatives Market on January 28, 2026: Pessimism Persists
On January 27, 2026, futures contracts for the VN30 and VN100 indices predominantly closed lower. The VN30-Index marked its third consecutive session of decline, accompanied by the emergence of a Three Black Crows candlestick pattern, signaling persistent bearish sentiment among investors.
Derivatives Market on January 21, 2026: Intense Tug-of-War Dynamics Emerge
On January 20, 2026, the VN30 and VN100 futures contracts exhibited a mixed trading session, with alternating gains and losses. The VN30-Index closed lower, forming a small-bodied candlestick pattern accompanied by above-average trading volume over the past 20 sessions, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors.
Vietstock Weekly 19-23/01/2026: Tug-of-War at New Peak Levels
The VN-Index is experiencing intense volatility near its new peak, marked by the emergence of a Doji candlestick pattern. The medium-term uptrend remains intact as the index closely follows the Upper Band of the Bollinger Bands, while the MACD sustains its upward momentum following a buy signal. However, short-term volatility risks may rise as the Stochastic Oscillator enters overbought territory, indicating the index needs more time to consolidate at this new price level.
Derivatives Market Outlook for January 26-30, 2026: Will the Tug-of-War Continue?
On January 23, 2026, the VN30 and VN100 futures contracts experienced a mixed trading session, with fluctuating movements. The VN30-Index declined, accompanied by a small-bodied candlestick pattern. Recent trading volumes have been inconsistent, reflecting investor uncertainty and a lack of clear market direction.
