I. FUTURES CONTRACTS OF THE STOCK MARKET INDEX
I.1. Market Trends
On January 28, 2026, all VN30 futures contracts experienced declines. Specifically, 41I1G2000 (I1G2000) dropped by 0.9% to 2,003.8 points; 41I1G3000 (I1G3000) fell by 0.89% to 2,002 points; 41I1G6000 (I1G6000) decreased by 0.73% to 2,005 points; and 41I1G9000 (I1G9000) declined by 0.49% to 2,008 points. The underlying index, VN30-Index, closed at 1,997.13 points.
Similarly, all VN100 futures contracts saw declines on the same day. Notably, 41I2G2000 (I2G2000) decreased by 1.1% to 1,879.1 points; 41I2G3000 (I2G3000) dropped by 1.32% to 1,873.8 points; 41I2G6000 (I2G6000) fell by 1.52% to 1,870.1 points; and 41I2G9000 (I2G9000) declined by 1.27% to 1,876.8 points. The underlying index, VN100-Index, closed at 1,869.14 points.
During the January 28, 2026 session, the 41I1G2000 contract initially surged and entered a tug-of-war phase in the first half. However, short sellers gradually gained dominance, causing I1G2000 to plummet by the end of the morning session. In the afternoon, buyers re-emerged, helping the contract recover close to the reference level. Yet, sellers intensified pressure, leading I1G2000 to reverse course and close with an 18.2-point loss.
Intraday Chart of 41I1G2000
Source: https://stockchart.vietstock.vn
At the close, the basis of the I1G2000 contract widened compared to the previous session, reaching 6.67 points. This indicates a more optimistic sentiment among investors.
Fluctuations of 41I1G2000 and VN30-Index
Source: VietstockFinance
Note: Basis is calculated as follows: Basis = Futures Contract Price – VN30-Index
Meanwhile, the basis of the I2G2000 contract also widened, reaching 9.96 points, reflecting improved investor optimism.
Fluctuations of 41I2G2000 and VN100-Index
Source: VietstockFinance
Note: Basis is calculated as follows: Basis = Futures Contract Price – VN100-Index
Trading volume and value in the derivatives market increased by 24.31% and 23.15%, respectively, compared to the previous session on January 27, 2026. Specifically, the trading volume of I1G2000 rose by 24.52% to 333,264 contracts. In contrast, I2G2000’s trading volume fell by 23.53% to 65 contracts.
Foreign investors resumed net selling, with a total net sell volume of 2,444 contracts on January 28, 2026.
Daily Trading Volume Fluctuations in the Derivatives Market. Unit: Contracts
Source: VietstockFinance
I.2. Valuation of Futures Contracts
Based on the fair pricing method as of January 29, 2026, the reasonable price range for actively traded futures contracts is as follows:
Summary Table of Derivatives Valuation for VN30-Index and VN100-Index
Source: VietstockFinance
Note: Opportunity costs in the valuation model are adjusted to suit the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free rate (government treasury bills) is replaced by the average deposit rate of major banks, with term adjustments for each futures contract.
I.3. Technical Analysis of VN30-Index
On January 28, 2026, the VN30-Index declined for the fourth consecutive session, accompanied by increased trading volume. This suggests persistent bearish sentiment among investors.
Currently, the index is retesting its long-term uptrend line and the 61.8% Fibonacci Projection level (around 1,965-1,980 points), which serves as short-term support.
Additionally, the VN30-Index remains below the Middle line of the Bollinger Bands, while the MACD indicator continues to widen its gap with the Signal line after issuing a sell signal. This indicates a worsening short-term outlook.
Technical Analysis Chart of VN30-Index
Source: VietstockUpdater
II. FUTURES CONTRACTS OF THE BOND MARKET
Based on the fair pricing method as of January 29, 2026, the reasonable price range for actively traded government bond futures contracts is as follows:
Summary Table of Government Bond Futures Valuation
Source: VietstockFinance
Note: Opportunity costs in the valuation model are adjusted to suit the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free rate (government treasury bills) is replaced by the average deposit rate of major banks, with term adjustments for each futures contract.
According to the above valuation, the 41BAG9000 contract is currently attractively priced. Investors may monitor and consider buying when these futures contracts offer favorable prices in the market.
Economic Analysis & Market Strategy Department, Vietstock Consulting
– 18:28 28/01/2026
Technical Analysis for the Afternoon Session of January 29: A Tug-of-War
The VN-Index fluctuated and continued its downward trend, though without the sharp declines seen in previous sessions. Meanwhile, the HNX-Index found solid support at its January 2026 low, equivalent to the 244-250 point range.
Derivatives Market on January 27, 2026: Short Sellers Take the Lead
On January 26, 2026, both VN30 and VN100 futures contracts experienced a decline during the trading session. The VN30-Index marked its second consecutive day of losses, accompanied by a Big Black Candle pattern and increased trading volume compared to the previous session, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment among investors.
Derivatives Market Update 20/01/2026: Short-Term Risks Persist
On January 19, 2026, the VN30 and VN100 futures contracts experienced a mixed trading session, with alternating gains and losses. The VN30-Index closed higher, forming a small-bodied candlestick pattern. Accompanying this was a decline in trading volume, which fell below the 20-session average, indicating investor hesitation and uncertainty in the market.
Derivatives Market on January 28, 2026: Pessimism Persists
On January 27, 2026, futures contracts for the VN30 and VN100 indices predominantly closed lower. The VN30-Index marked its third consecutive session of decline, accompanied by the emergence of a Three Black Crows candlestick pattern, signaling persistent bearish sentiment among investors.
Derivatives Market on January 21, 2026: Intense Tug-of-War Dynamics Emerge
On January 20, 2026, the VN30 and VN100 futures contracts exhibited a mixed trading session, with alternating gains and losses. The VN30-Index closed lower, forming a small-bodied candlestick pattern accompanied by above-average trading volume over the past 20 sessions, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors.
