During the seminar titled “Real Estate Market Outlook for 2026: Where Will Investors’ Capital Flow?” held on January 25th, a panel discussion took place under the theme “Real Estate Market 2026: Growth and Acceleration.”
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At the panel, Dr. Cấn Văn Lực, Chief Economist at BIDV and Director of BIDV Training and Research Institute, as well as a member of the Prime Minister’s Policy Advisory Council, shared insights on the expected breakthroughs in the real estate market and offered advice to investors leveraging financial “leverage” in 2026.
Anticipated Breakthroughs in the Real Estate Market
Discussing the expected breakthroughs in the real estate market amid numerous institutional changes, Dr. Cấn Văn Lực emphasized the shift in management mindset, moving from immediate legal amendments to the timely issuance of resolutions, notably Resolution 254 by the National Assembly.
According to Dr. Lực, there are three core highlights from the new regulations that businesses and investors should pay close attention to in order to resolve current “bottlenecks.”
Regarding land finance, Dr. Lực highlighted the change in the application of land price tables. The tables will now remain stable for five years instead of changing annually, ensuring the necessary stability for businesses in strategic planning.
However, this stability does not imply rigidity; there is now flexibility in land pricing, specifically through the coefficient K.
Localities are empowered to determine the adjustment coefficient (coefficient K) based on their actual conditions. A locality may apply a coefficient K of 1, 1.2, or even 0.5, providing significant flexibility in land finance management at the local level.
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Another highlight, according to Dr. Cấn Văn Lực, is the significant advancement in land reclamation policies. Previously, land reclamation required 100% consensus from both residents and neighborhoods, which was practically unattainable. Now, the Government and National Assembly have approved reducing the consensus threshold to 75%. This is a breakthrough for the land sector. Specifically, for land reclamation to proceed, two conditions must be met simultaneously: 75% of the land area must agree, and 75% of the landowners must consent.
In addition to the legal provisions, the expert also praised the National Assembly’s decision to implement Resolutions 170 and 171 to address land project bottlenecks.
Specifically, issues related to residential and other land types, previously piloted in only three provinces, are now applicable nationwide. Similarly, projects facing bottlenecks related to inspection conclusions are now eligible for comprehensive resolution mechanisms approved by the National Assembly.
Real Estate Credit Must Avoid Overheating
Dr. Cấn Văn Lực emphasized that while real estate is a crucial sector in the economy, it must remain healthy, stable, and appropriately regulated to prevent excessive pricing or scattered investments. He stressed that the most important control tools are finance (taxes and fees) and credit.
Regarding credit limits, the State Bank has set a general growth target of approximately 15% for this year. Dr. Lực noted that real estate credit growth should not exceed this average, unless market conditions necessitate adjustments.
Notably, Dr. Lực highlighted the differentiated policy approach: “Lending for real estate investment and business is clearly under tighter control. However, lending for home purchases still has room for continuation, as last year’s growth was relatively low.” Additionally, credit for social housing and industrial park real estate remains a priority.
Explaining the recent rise in deposit and lending interest rates, Dr. Lực identified three main causes: the gap between capital supply and demand, competitive pressure from other attractive investment channels, and resource allocation strategies.
Real estate is not a fully prioritized sector, and capital must be allocated to various other business sectors. Consequently, lending rates for real estate investment and business will naturally be higher.
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3 Key Recommendations for Businesses and the Housing Price Reduction Challenge
Amid tight capital flows and rising capital costs, Dr. Cấn Văn Lực offered three specific recommendations for businesses to implement immediately.
Specifically, restructure cash flow and products: Businesses must review their cash flow and ensure the restructuring of project portfolios and investment products.
Diversify capital sources: Relying solely on bank “milk” is not advisable. Businesses should flexibly mobilize capital through bonds (domestic, international, green bonds), the stock market (listing to raise capital), investment funds, foreign investment, and accumulated equity.
Avoid scattered investments: “With limited capital, investing in 10 projects at once is clearly unsustainable,” Dr. Lực warned.
Additionally, alongside objective factors driving up housing prices, Dr. Cấn Văn Lực called for proactive efforts from businesses to regulate prices. He urged businesses to collaborate with the Government and citizens to bring prices to a more reasonable level, viewing this as an ethical and sustainable approach.
Xuân Tùng
– 06:16 26/01/2026
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