Unveiling the Current State of Detached House Supply in Ho Chi Minh City

Dilution Due to a Single Project

According to Cushman & Wakefield’s Ho Chi Minh City Residential Market Report Q4/2025, the city’s landed housing market, after a prolonged lull, witnessed a remarkable surge in supply during Q4/2025, marking a record-breaking growth. New supply reached approximately 1,535 units, a staggering 50-fold increase compared to Q3/2025 and the same period last year, vividly illustrating a market explosion after a period of extreme compression.

Notably, about 92% of the new supply is located outside the city center, shifting to peripheral areas, with the launch of a mega-project in Can Gio (approximately 60 km from HCMC’s center). The remaining 8% of new supply is evenly distributed between Thu Duc and Binh Tan. Prominent projects include Green Paradise Can Gio (Vingroup) and Gladia by The Waters (Khang Dien House & Keppel).

In Q4/2025, new absorption reached approximately 1,167 units, a 20-fold increase compared to Q3/2025 and the same period last year, highlighting the immense appeal of this property type with the introduction of new supply from major projects.

With an absorption rate of around 70%, the market demonstrates a “thirst” for well-planned properties, future infrastructure connectivity strategies (ring roads, highways), and TOD models.

Developers in this phase often employ flexible payment policies and favorable interest rate support to stimulate demand, contributing to the current high absorption rate. The average primary selling price across the market plummeted by over 50%, from $13,014 per square meter to $6,330 per square meter, a result of the “dilution” effect caused by the entry of the mega-project Green Paradise Can Gio, which accounts for 92% of the total new supply, priced at around $5,809 per square meter.

Meanwhile, in other key areas, landed property values remain robust, with record highs in former Thu Duc City at approximately $13,214 per square meter, followed by Binh Tan at around $5,378 per square meter, and Binh Chanh at about $4,043 per square meter.

Despite significantly lower average primary selling prices, the market continues to exhibit strong appeal with an impressive 70% absorption rate, driven by investment demand in well-planned urban areas. The market is entering a new cycle, a phase of explosive new supply growth after a long period of compression, marked by the entry of mega-projects and large-scale developments, notably the significant shift to peripheral areas like Can Gio and multi-centric urban centers.

Ms. Le Hoang Lan Nhu Ngoc, Senior Director of Strategic Consulting at Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam, stated: “Long-term investor confidence has returned, driven by long-term factors such as future connectivity of ring roads and the Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) model, which leverages the value of landed properties in HCMC,” said Ms. Ngoc.

Moving forward, market dynamics will continue to depend on the controlled launch pace of developers, access to credit, and legal unblocking progress. Meanwhile, infrastructure development and the expansion of HCMC’s administrative boundaries are expected to shape price levels and demand in the next cycle.

Strong Purchasing Power

Meanwhile, Hanoi’s landed housing market recorded approximately 3,500 new units launched, a 10% decrease compared to the previous year but still the second-largest supply year, only behind 2024. Specifically, in Q4/2025, the supply reached over 220 units, a 3% increase from the previous quarter but an 87% decrease compared to the same period in 2024.

The primary reason is that the supply in this quarter comes from a small-scale project in Hanoi’s outskirts, with a lack of large integrated urban projects. Most of the new supply is concentrated in areas outside the city center, reflecting the urban development shift towards suburban areas with larger land funds.

Developers prioritize locations with strong infrastructure investment, convenient transportation connectivity, and high population growth potential in the near future. This trend indicates a market shift towards developing satellite cities, meeting the demand for housing with quality living spaces and synchronized utility systems.

In terms of demand, Hanoi’s landed housing market recorded nearly 4,800 units sold in 2025, the highest in six years since 2020, primarily due to strong absorption from integrated mega-projects in the outskirts. Most transactions are concentrated in urban areas with key factors such as strategic location, transparent legal status, synchronized utility systems, and reputable developers, reflecting buyers’ increasing preference for quality and long-term value.

The average primary selling price in Q4/2025 in Hanoi reached approximately $9,917 per square meter, an 8% decrease from the previous quarter and a 14% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. This adjustment is mainly due to the market receiving new supply with more reasonable prices in suburban areas like Hoai Duc and Thach That.

In the medium term from 2026 to 2028, Cushman & Wakefield forecasts that Hanoi’s landed housing supply will reach approximately 10,800 units, mainly concentrated in suburban areas. This shift reflects the inevitable trend given the limited inner-city land fund, aligning with the development of satellite cities to reasonably decentralize population and reduce infrastructure pressure on the core area. Future projects will prioritize integrated urban models with synchronized utilities, transparent legal status, and convenient transportation connectivity.