Many predictions for 2024 suggest that the rice market will continue to thrive as countries increase their imports to ensure food security.
In 2024, Vietnamese rice still dominates
In 2023, the price of Vietnamese rice witnessed consecutive increases, reaching the highest peak in the world at the end of the year. According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), starting from June, Vietnamese “pearl” rice exports continuously increased. In the last month of 2023, the price of Vietnamese rice remained at $663/ton, which is a very high price compared to the past few years.
Vietnamese rice is recognized as the best rice in the world.
Forecasts for rice exports in 2024 indicate that prices will remain high and not fall below $640 – $650/ton. The reason for this issue is that the global rice supply is gradually becoming scarce, while Vietnam holds the opportunity to export rice.
Prof. Dr. Vo Tong Xuan said that the current context shows that the global food supply is becoming increasingly scarce. India has not resumed rice exports and Thailand has reduced its rice exports. Meanwhile, China is always short of rice, as are other countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Turkey, and Chile, all of which are competing to buy Vietnamese rice. Additionally, countries in the Asian region are all affected by El Nino and climate change, with almost every country reducing their rice output.
Prof. Vo Tong Xuan believes that the bordering areas with Cambodia, including the northern part of Kien Giang, An Giang, Dong Thap, and Long An, can cultivate about 1.5 million hectares of rice. These are areas that never lack fresh water, are protected from saltwater intrusion, and can be considered the food security regions of the country.
In other coastal areas, we do not cultivate rice during the dry season because it requires a lot of fresh water, which is already scarce at that time, and the efficiency is not high. But during the rainy season, it is very good to plant rice, then use saltwater to raise shrimp and fish, and reserve fresh water for food security regions.
In the central region, farmers still cultivate three crops of rice. “In other countries, their rice varieties are long-term, it takes four months to harvest so they can only grow two crops of rice. But in Vietnam, thanks to the arrangement of crop seasons, planning the region to grow one crop, two crops, three crops, we have many short-term rice varieties, it only takes about 90-100 days to harvest, so we can grow three crops with high productivity.”
Export rice price sets a record, expected to continue at a high level in the future. (Illustrative photo).
“In recent years, we have added new high-quality rice genes to our rice plants, so the quality is better, and we can be completely confident in competing with other products. With this advantage, I believe that this is a rare opportunity to elevate Vietnamese rice to a global level. We should not miss this chance.” – Prof. Vo Tong Xuan said.
What should we do to seize the opportunity?
Predictions for 2024 show great potential for rice exports and the elevation of Vietnamese rice. However, Mr. Huynh Van Thon – Chairman of the Board of Directors of Loc Troi Group, said that the current market is very favorable for sales, but not favorable for domestic rice purchasing businesses.
According to him, there is still an unsustainable business situation between producers and purchasing businesses in Vietnam. When the price of rice is high, many people are willing to break their commitments to sell to businesses and instead sell to other traders at higher prices.
This not only causes losses for purchasing and processing businesses because they have already committed money but also creates difficulties in the supply of rice for export. More than ever, it is necessary to urgently address this issue for sustainable development.
Mr. Nguyen Van Don – General Director of Viet Hung Co., Ltd. also believes that 2024 is a year of great potential for rice exports. In the country, at the beginning of the year, the winter-spring harvest will begin, with a large output, providing plenty of supply for businesses.
This is a great opportunity for Vietnam to export rice. However, if there is a lack of or weak linkages between businesses, farmers, and cooperatives as there are now, it will push export businesses into an inactive and unsustainable situation.
“Currently, some rice export businesses are still hesitant to sign export contracts with partners at the beginning of the year because they have not been able to proactively find sources. This limitation needs to be overcome immediately, or it will hinder the explosive growth of rice exports. Our experience is that businesses need to purchase from many different sources, such as direct purchases from producers, purchasing collaborations with other businesses, and cooperatives, to avoid passivity when signing contracts to sell before purchasing later,” Mr. Don said.
Mr. Pham Thai Binh – Chairman of the Board of Directors of Trung An High-Tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company (Trung An Rice) forecasts that with extreme climate change and several political and global conflicts, the shortage of rice will continue in 2024. However, some rice-exporting countries are actively seeking solutions to address the rice shortage in the coming years.
Therefore, in 2024, if we want Vietnamese rice to continue to thrive in the world, we must seize the opportunity, quickly overcome shortcomings, set new rare records in history like in 2023, and restrict unsustainable practices.
