When will the gold price fever end?

Gold prices in the domestic market have been continuously setting new records within just 1 week. Many people are rushing to "ride the wave" of gold prices, disregarding the risk warnings from experts about this gold rush.

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Setting records every day

In history, the gold rush happened over 10 years ago, before the Decree No. 24 was issued regarding the monopoly of the State Bank of Vietnam on SJC gold and the import of gold. The price of gold kept rising, and people rushed in to buy regardless of warnings. In reality, many people were devastated when the price of gold plummeted later on. The gold market is experiencing a similar trend, as both SJC gold and gold rings have continuously reached new highs this year, pulling up other types of gold like jewelry and gold “chunks” (a type of raw gold).

On March 7th, the price of gold reached its highest level ever. At 2 p.m., the price of SJC gold rose to 79.5 – 81.5 million VND per tael, an increase of 200,000 VND compared to the morning. Within half an hour, the price of SJC gold continued to rise, trading at 79.8 – 81.8 million VND per tael, which was over half a million VND per tael higher than in the morning. The price of plain gold rings also increased by 200,000 VND after the opening and continued to climb to a new record level. The buy/sell price of plain gold rings at SJC reached 66.8 – 68 million VND. At Bao Tin Minh Chau, the buy/sell price of plain gold rings reached 67.68 – 68.88 million VND per tael.

In Hanoi’s gold streets such as Tran Nhan Tong (Hai Ba Trung) and Cau Giay, many gold shops were bustling with customers buying and selling. There were even shops announcing that customers would have to wait for nearly a month to get the gold they ordered in quantities over 4 taels.

At Tran Nhan Tong street, staff members were busy arranging parking for customers from the outside before redirecting them to the buying and selling areas. Nguyen Quoc Duong (Thanh Xuan, Hanoi) bought 7 taels of gold rings worth nearly half a billion VND. Duong said, “I used to buy SJC gold, but the price is too high now, so I switched to buying gold rings. The shop told me I can only get the gold on April 2nd, regardless of whether the price goes up or down.”

People continue to queue up to buy gold on March 7th. Photo: Ngoc Mai.

Regarding buying gold rings in the current high-price situation, Duong said, “I buy gold for storage purposes, so I still buy even when the price is high because it gives me a sense of security.”

Thu Nga (Dong Da, Hanoi), who bought 5 taels of SJC gold, shared, “I have been keeping an eye on the information and have seen that gold prices have been continuously rising worldwide, so they will definitely rise in Vietnam as well. Currently, the interest rates on savings are too low, so I withdrew one bank account and immediately bought gold. I don’t intend to hold SJC gold for long, I’ll wait for the next peak and then sell it.”

Many customers come to the stores, sitting and waiting in a dilemma of whether to buy or sell in the context of high gold prices. Nguyen Thang (Hai Ba Trung, Hanoi) is waiting for the staff to count over 2 billion VND and sell 35 taels of gold. Thang shared that he bought 35 tael gold rings at the beginning of 2023, and now he has made a profit of over half a billion VND.

Since the beginning of the year, the selling price of SJC gold has increased by 7 million VND per tael, and the buying price has increased by 8 million VND per tael; the price of gold rings has increased by 6 million VND per tael in both directions. Compared to the same period last year, the selling price of SJC gold has increased by 14 million VND per tael, and the buying price has increased by 12.6 million VND per tael; the buying price of gold rings has increased by 11 million VND per tael, and the selling price has increased by 12 million VND per tael.

Increasing supply, gold cools down

In an interview with Tien Phong Newspaper, Huynh Trung Khanh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Gold Trading and Business Association, Adviser to the World Gold Council in Vietnam, said that gold prices worldwide are rising due to monetary policies and the economic situation in the United States. Gold prices are also increasing on a global scale, including in Vietnam.

However, Khanh emphasized that the increase in domestic gold prices is not solely due to the rising global prices but also due to scarcity. Without any market intervention measures from the State Bank of Vietnam, the price of SJC gold will have an increasingly higher difference compared to the global price.

“If the State Bank of Vietnam adjusts Decree No. 24 to increase the supply to meet market demand, the price of SJC gold could decrease by tens of millions of VND, down to 70 million VND per tael. However, if the supply is not increased, the price of SJC gold could increase to 85 million VND per tael. The future gold price story depends largely on the solution to increasing supply,” Khanh stated.