The Power of Prediction: Forecasting Electricity Demand to Stay Ahead of the Curve

According to the Northern Power Corporation, electricity demand in the 27 northern provinces and cities is expected to surge during this year's hot season, posing significant challenges in ensuring a stable power supply. In anticipation of this, the Northern Power Corporation (EVNNPC) has proactively devised and implemented various scenarios to secure electricity provision during the peak months of the hot season, starting from early 2024.

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Hanoi Power Corporation employees operate power supply to loads in the area. Illustration photo: Ngoc Ha/VNA

Prioritize Overload Protection

Nghe An has always been considered one of the hottest provinces in Northern Vietnam, with temperatures soaring above 40 degrees Celsius during the summer peak. Combined with the presence of Cua Lo beach, a popular tourist destination, the province constantly faces the risk of power overload.

According to Mr. Bang Duc Minh, Director of Cua Lo Power Company (under Nghe An Power Company), the harsh weather conditions in the coastal area, along with aging infrastructure, require special attention to regularly inspect the power grid and implement timely solutions to ensure a stable power supply during the tourist season.

In addition to timely inspections and repairs, Cua Lo Power Company also employs technical solutions such as rotating and upgrading transformers in underloaded and overloaded areas to guarantee uninterrupted power provision for local residents.

To ensure a stable power supply for the local tourism industry, Cua Lo Power Company closely collaborates with local authorities to promote energy conservation among the community during peak hours of high temperatures.

Mr. Phan Van Nga, Deputy Director of Nghe An Power Company, stated that with average summer temperatures ranging from 38 to 42 degrees Celsius, ensuring stable power supply demands the full engagement of the power sector. This year, the peak load is expected to reach approximately 1,120 MW, a significant increase of 100 MW compared to last year’s 920 MW. During the recent heatwave before the April 30th holiday, the provincial load reached around 963 MW.

In response, Nghe An Power Company proactively implements various solutions, with a primary focus on investment in overload protection. As of now, the company has completed 80% of the planned investments for 2024 and aims to finish the remaining projects in May to ensure a stable power supply for the local population and businesses, added Mr. Phan Van Nga.

In early May, temperatures in Nghe An have already climbed to 37-38 degrees Celsius. To meet the power demands, electric workers have been working diligently on maintenance and replacement of power lines to prevent any potential accidents or overloads.

In addition to their maintenance and repair responsibilities, the employees of Nghe An Power Company regularly inspect the power grid’s safety. As this is the season for strong winds and storms, the company started the year by clearing the power line corridors to ensure stable power distribution. During the hottest period, the company mobilized 100% of its workforce for operations, patrols, and inspections to identify and address any potential risks in the power line corridors, thus ensuring a stable power supply.

Adjusting Electricity Demand

In addition to infrastructure investments, Nghe An Power Company has actively collaborated with local enterprises to implement Demand Response (DR) programs, receiving strong support from customers.

Currently, there are 136 enterprises in Nghe An province consuming over 1 million kWh of electricity annually. Hoang Thi Loan Textile and Garment Joint Stock Company is one of the largest electricity consumers in the province. Mr. Van Anh Hung, Deputy Head of Technology and Investment Department of the company, shared that electricity costs account for a significant portion of their production expenses, impacting the competitiveness of their yarn and fiber products in both domestic and export markets. Therefore, energy conservation is crucial for the company’s survival.

To conserve energy, the company has worked with the power sector to implement demand response measures. Adjusting the production schedule to avoid peak hours is particularly challenging for the company due to its fully automated and integrated production line. “However, we try to arrange our production based on orders to optimize the load during suitable production hours, while also supporting the power sector in energy conservation,” said Mr. Hung.

Additionally, the company has adopted solutions to utilize natural light, adjust air conditioning usage, and replace neon and incandescent bulbs with LED lights. Notably, the company has invested nearly 50 billion VND in energy-efficient machinery and technology, resulting in a preliminary estimate of over 20% energy savings.

According to Mr. Luu Nhat Vu, Deputy Director of Muong Thanh Grand Cua Lo Hotel, during the summer tourist peak, the hotel accommodates a large number of guests, leading to a significant increase in electricity demand. To conserve energy, the hotel turns off unnecessary electrical appliances, reduces the number of appliances in the corridors, and utilizes natural light and wind.

“We also implement demand response programs to support the power sector in regulating and reducing pressure on the power system during peak hours,” added Mr. Luu Nhat Vu.

The power sector forecasts that in May, electricity demand will continue to rise, with an average daily consumption of 913.6 million kWh across the system, a 12.24% increase compared to the same period last year. The maximum capacity is expected to reach 49,000 MW, with Northern Vietnam alone accounting for up to 24,500 MW.

To alleviate the pressure on the power system, EVNNPC has been working closely with local authorities since the beginning of the year to promote the energy conservation program in accordance with the Prime Minister’s Directive 20. These efforts include encouraging large enterprises to adjust their production plans to avoid peak hours, promoting the DR program among customers, and raising awareness about energy conservation.

Mr. Vu Anh Phuong, Deputy General Director of EVNNPC, stated that the company has instructed power companies to strengthen inspections, address deficiencies, complete repairs, and prevent overloads. Additionally, EVNNPC has been collaborating with large customers to agree on DR programs for 2024 and encouraging all customers to sign an appendix to the power purchase agreement regarding load shifting and power reduction during challenging periods of power supply.