Southeast Asian Nations’ GDP Growth Rates for Q1 2024: A Comparative Analysis with Vietnam

The Central Bank of Malaysia has unveiled the country's economic performance for the first quarter of 2024, offering a comprehensive insight into the nation's financial landscape.

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Malaysia’s economy is off to a strong start in 2024, with the Central Bank of Malaysia reporting a GDP growth rate of 4.2% year-over-year in Q1 2024, the highest in the last year. This growth is attributed to the rebound in export demand from foreign partners and robust private consumption. The economy grew by 1.4% in Q1 2024 compared to Q4 2023.

Private consumption in Malaysia increased by 4.7% in the first quarter of 2024, up from 4.2% in Q4 2023. Additionally, exports rose by 5.2%, reversing the 7.9% decline seen in the previous quarter.

When looking at economic sectors, the services sector grew by 4.7% in Q1 2024, outperforming the previous quarter’s growth of 4.1%. The manufacturing sector also showed signs of recovery, with a growth rate of 1.9%.

The Central Bank forecasts Malaysia’s GDP growth to reach between 4% and 5% in 2024, supported by domestic spending and external demand recovery. This aligns with the International Monetary Fund’s projection of a rebound in global trade growth to 3.3% in 2024, up from 0.4% last year.

In Q1 2024, Indonesia’s GDP grew by 5.11% year-over-year, surpassing expectations and marking the highest growth rate in five years. This growth was driven primarily by the expansion of domestic economic activities.

In the manufacturing sector, key contributors to growth included mining, processing, construction, and trade. Household spending in Indonesia during the first three months of 2024 increased by 4.91% year-over-year, higher than the 4.47% growth in Q4 2023, and accounting for more than half of the country’s GDP.

Additionally, government spending rose nearly 20% in the first quarter due to election-related funding. However, investment in Southeast Asia’s largest economy grew by only 3.79% in Q1 2024, down from 5.02% in Q4 2023.

Singapore’s economy, as reported by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), grew by 2.7% year-over-year in Q1 2024, supported by a recovery in the tourism sector. The services sector expanded by 3.2% in the first quarter of 2024, up from 2% in Q4 2023.

Singapore expects its growth to be in the range of 1% to 3% in 2024, anticipating a rebound in the semiconductor and other export industries. The country’s GDP growth in 2023 was 1.1%, lower than the 3.6% achieved in 2022.

Selena Ling, OCBC Bank’s chief economist, noted that Singapore’s growth trajectory is predicted to improve in the subsequent quarters of 2024, driven by a pickup in the manufacturing sector, particularly for electronics.

According to a report by the General Statistics Office, Vietnam’s socio-economic performance in Q1 2024 was positive despite global economic instability. Vietnam’s GDP in Q1 2024 is estimated to have grown by 5.66% year-over-year, higher than the growth rates achieved in Q1 of the previous three years. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries grew by 2.98%, contributing 6.09% to the total added value of the economy; industry and construction increased by 6.28%, contributing 41.68%; and services rose by 6.12%, contributing 52.23%.

Reference: Nikkei Asia