The Golden Horizon: A Bullish Outlook for Gold

After months of speculation about when the Federal Reserve would begin its monetary easing cycle, followed by weeks of fluctuating predictions about whether the interest rate cut would be 25 or 50 basis points, the big day has finally arrived. The Fed did not disappoint the metals markets, delivering the maximum expected rate cut.

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Gold entered the week at near-historic highs and continued to break records due to economic and geopolitical factors. In just two weeks, gold prices impressively surged by $120, with more than half of that increase occurring in the last two sessions.

On Friday, December gold futures traded at $2,647.10, a remarkable one-day increase of $40.90. Spot gold also ended the week above $2,600, reaching $2,620.63 per ounce.

This significant increase underscores gold’s role as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty and geopolitical conflicts. The performance of this precious metal reflects investors’ growing demand for stability amid shifting monetary policies and international tensions.

Domestically, gold prices rose by approximately VND 2 million per tael. Specifically, SJC gold bars increased to VND 80-82 million per tael (buying-selling), compared to VND 78.5-80.5 million per tael a week earlier; SJC 9999 gold rings rose to VND 78.7-80 million per tael from VND 77.8-79.1 million per tael last week.

Gold price movement last week.

 The latest Kitco News survey revealed that retail investors are highly optimistic about gold’s prospects for the coming week, while industry experts are divided between expecting further price increases and a short-term sideways trend.

“Prices will go up,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “At the moment, gold’s upward momentum seems unstoppable, although there will undoubtedly be pauses or pullbacks along the way. Over the past two years, central banks and Chinese investors have dominated gold purchases for their own reasons, but now Western investors are returning to the market as macroeconomic conditions improve, with interest rates gradually declining and the economy clearly slowing down.”

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, opined that gold is likely to trade sideways next week. He stated, “Midweek, gold reached our $2,600 target, which we set after the Fed’s 50-basis point rate cut.” “Subsequently, prices pulled back, testing support near $2,550, before turning higher and reaching new highs before the week’s end.”

“Next week, the market is likely to be quieter, which could mean some profit-taking by momentum traders, especially if US rates adjust higher due to a stronger US dollar.” “With gold above the Bollinger Band ($2,604), buyers may be patient, waiting for a more attractive entry point,” Chandler analyzed.

Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, shared his optimism about gold’s prospects for the upcoming week. “After reaching a new record high, it appears that a new leg higher may have technically begun,” he commented.

Mark Leibovit of VR Metals/Resource Letter anticipated a decline in gold prices next week. “Prices will go down as this is the trading top for the week based on cycles,” he stated.

Sean Lusk, Commercial Hedging Strategist at Walsh Trading, focused on deciphering the implications of the Fed’s latest data release. The 50-basis point rate cut significantly impacted him, but it was the Fed’s updated forecasts that truly shocked him.

“I was surprised by all the forthcoming rate cuts beyond the 50 that they projected on the dot plot,” he admitted. “In my view, this will eventually increase inflation risks, but they must be thinking that the job market is worsening.”

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