The Bottom of the Dollar’s Fall: A Story Yet to Unfold

Last week (09/23-27/2024), USD prices continued their downward trajectory in the international market as the U.S. inflation index showed signs of cooling off.

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In the international market, the DXY index fell by 0.32 points over the week, reaching 100.42 – the lowest level for the index in over a year.

The decline in the USD shows no signs of abating as the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index continued to rise weaker than expected in August 2024 – increasing by just 2.2% year-over-year.

The inflation index continues to show signs of cooling, further reinforcing the belief that the Federal Reserve will maintain its loose monetary policy to focus on supporting the labor market. Continuing to cut interest rates will reduce the appeal of holding the US dollar.

Source: SBV

Domestically, the Vietnamese dong to USD central exchange rate decreased by 30 VND/USD compared to the previous week (September 20th), reaching 24,118 VND/USD on September 27th, 2024. This marks the seventh consecutive week of decline for the USD/VND central rate, totaling a decrease of 142 VND/USD.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has kept the immediate buying price unchanged at 23,400 VND/USD. Notably, after nearly five months of fixing the immediate selling price at 25,450 VND/USD, the regulator switched to adjusting the immediate selling price according to the central rate movement from August 30th. On September 27th, the immediate selling price stood at 25,273 VND/USD, down 32 VND/USD from the previous week.

Source: VCB

In contrast, Vietcombank’s exchange rate was quoted at 24,390-24,760 VND/USD (buy-sell), an increase of 20 VND/USD in both directions – the second consecutive week of increase for the bank’s USD rate.

Notably, the USD/VND exchange rate in the free market surged by 130 VND/USD in both directions compared to the previous week, reaching 25,030-25,130 VND/USD (buy-sell).

Khang Di