The buyers’ risk appetite has significantly increased, immediately altering the way orders are placed and the selected price range. Today’s market still witnessed many swinging sessions, but they remained in the green zone and became more enthusiastic towards the end.
After a session of touching the bottom with a “wicked candle” and a session of tug-of-war balance, the market began to accelerate upward. The most noticeable change was from passively waiting for prices to actively blocking around reference prices, and today is about pushing prices up. This change is essentially a shift in the perception of risk: when afraid of further price drops, one either doesn’t buy or waits for very low prices, and it’s okay if there’s no match. When less afraid, buy on dips during intraday price drops. When the fear of missing out kicks in, buy by matching straight, and finally, when worried that others will snatch the opportunity, engage in price competition.
Today’s liquidity was maintained quite well, with a matching order value of about 16.9k billion VND on the two exchanges, showing an upward trend. The new information is that the Vietnamese market has not been considered for a change in ranking, which is theoretically not positive, but the way the market reacted shows that the information itself is not inherently good or bad. When the psychology is enthusiastic, supply and demand become the deciding factors.
The VN30 blue-chip group today led the strong rise at the end, and the representative index of this basket also performed the best. In recent sessions, capital has been focusing clearly on this group, with a high weight of over 50% on the HSX floor. In fact, if we look at the index, the VNI failed to break the 1300 peak at the end of September and early October, but the VN30 has broken through and the recent retreat was just a retest of the old resistance zone. The uptrend on the VN30 is much clearer, both in momentum and liquidity.
Today’s market also widely disseminated forecasts of Q3/2024 business results. In fact, this information is old news, but the interesting thing is that when the psychology needs to find a foothold, whether the news is old or new is not the issue, but whether it can meet the needs or not. Everyone starts talking about how this stock will increase profits well, and that stock will surge, which was of no interest yesterday or earlier this week. Such psychological developments always recur and remain effective.
There is now a growing acceptance of chasing higher prices, so the opportunity to buy at lower prices is diminishing. This is not necessarily a disadvantage because the purchases made during the dips already have a low cost base. There will always be intraday fluctuations even when the market is enthusiastic. Consensus has not yet been fully achieved.
Today, the derivatives market continued to maintain a wide basis differential. In the last 2.5 sessions, this signal has indicated that expectations are in line with the underlying market. Although a wide positive basis is a disadvantage for Long, when the market has strengthened, there is no other way, and Short is even riskier. In fact, even during intraday dips, F1 adjusted very little.
The threshold of 1341.xx of VN30 well supported the index, serving as a good entry point for Long with a stop loss when VN30 falls through this level. VN30 broke through 1348.xx but failed to reach 1356.xx, however, the basis widened even more advantageously.
Today’s strong rise is a signal of greater consensus from the sell-off signals and the change in the buyers’ mindset. The market has established a short-term bottom for this correction phase, which is also just a typical corrective move. The strategy remains to look for buying opportunities, Long/Short flexibility with derivatives, and a preference for Long.
VN30 closed today at 1351.97. Tomorrow’s nearest resistance is 1357; 1367; 1376; 1380; 1388; 1397. Support is at 1348; 1341; 1333; 1325.
“Blog chứng khoán” reflects the personal views of the author and does not represent the opinions of VnEconomy. The perspectives and assessments are those of the individual investor, and VnEconomy respects the author’s viewpoint and writing style. VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for any issues arising from the published investment perspectives and opinions.
