The Market Tug-of-War Rages On

1 November, 2024

I. MARKET ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET BASICS ON 10/30/2024

– The main indices rose and fell in opposite directions during the October 30 session. VN-Index closed the session down 0.25%, at 1,258.63 points; meanwhile, HNX-Index reached 225.88 points, up slightly by 0.14% compared to the previous session.

– The trading volume on the HOSE reached over 475 million units, down 3.2% from the previous session. Trading volume on the HNX increased by 9.4%, reaching over 40 million units.

– Foreign investors net sold on the HOSE with a value of nearly VND 129 billion and net sold nearly VND 12 billion on the HNX.

Trading value of foreign investors on HOSE, HNX and UPCOM by day. Unit: VND billion

Net trading value by stock code. Unit: VND billion

– The market could not continue its recovery momentum during the trading session on October 30. The initial green color was quickly pushed back by sellers, dragging the index into the red until the end of the session. Selling pressure focused on pillar stocks, putting significant pressure on the index as capital inflows showed no signs of improving. At the sharpest decline, the VN-Index lost more than 6 points, although a recovery effort at the end of the session helped narrow the loss, but it may not have been enough to boost investor confidence. At the close, the VN-Index fell 3.15 points to 1,258.63.

– In terms of impact, the 10 stocks with the most negative influence took away nearly 4 points from the index. Of which, VHM alone accounted for 1.6 points, followed by VCB, VNM, and VIC, which also caused the VN-Index to fall by more than 1 point. On the other hand, TCB, STB, and BID made the most notable efforts to narrow the decline, contributing more than 1 point to the overall gain.

– VN30-Index closed down 0.14%, at 1,333.85 points. The breadth was negative with 17 declining stocks, 8 advancing stocks, and 5 stocks closing unchanged. Among them, VHM faced heavy selling pressure, ranking last with a decrease of 3.7%. In addition, SSI, PLX, and VNM fell by more than 1%. In contrast, the “king” stocks exclusively occupied the top 4 positions, namely STB, VIB, TCB, and TPB, with gains ranging from 0.9% to 2.2%.

Sectors were mixed. The real estate group ranked at the bottom with pressure from large-cap stocks such as VHM (-3.74%), VIC (-0.85%), and BCN (-0.6%). However, many stocks in this industry still attracted good demand, notably NVL (+3.38%), SIP (+4.51%), IDC (+2.79%), DXG (+1.22%), and SZC (+1.03%).

The financial sector index ended the session just below the reference level. Positive performance was seen in stocks such as TCB (+1.05%), STB (+2.2%), VIB (+1.33%), TPB (+0.88%), NAB (+1.58%), etc. Notably, VPB and TCB attracted strong buying interest from foreign investors in this session, especially VPB, which was net bought by more than 8 million shares out of a total trading volume of nearly 10 million. Meanwhile, VCB (-0.33%), CTG (-0.57%), ACB (-0.4%), SSI (-1.31%), VND (-1.36%), HCM (-1.05%), etc., remained in negative territory.

On the upside, the industrial group led the market with a gain of 0.44%. Notable performers included VEA (+3.18%), HVN (+1.59%), MVN (+4.36%), PHP (+2.46%), BCG (+1.45%), STG (+5.71%), and C4G (+2.35%).

VN-Index returned to negative territory despite the positive effect from the previous two recovery sessions, indicating that the tug-of-war trend is not over yet. Additionally, trading volume remained below the 20-day average, suggesting a lack of capital inflows into the market. Currently, the MACD and Stochastic Oscillator indicators continue to decline after giving sell signals, reflecting a still cautious short-term outlook.

II. TREND AND PRICE MOVEMENT ANALYSIS

VN-Index – Trading volume remains below the 20-day average

Currently, the MACD and Stochastic Oscillator indicators continue to decline after giving sell signals, reflecting a still cautious short-term outlook.

HNX-Index – Stochastic Oscillator indicator gives a buy signal again

HNX-Index continued to rise after a prolonged period of consecutive declines. However, trading volume needs to surpass the 20-day average to sustain the upward momentum.

At present, the Stochastic Oscillator indicator has given a buy signal again in the oversold region. If, in the coming sessions, the MACD indicator also gives a similar signal, the short-term outlook will be more optimistic.

Money Flow Analysis

Movement of smart money: The Negative Volume Index indicator of the VN-Index fell below the EMA 20-day moving average. If this condition persists in the next session, the risk of a sudden drop (thrust down) will increase.

Foreign capital flow: Foreign investors continued to net sell during the trading session on October 30, 2024. If foreign investors maintain this action in the coming sessions, the situation will become even more pessimistic.

III. MARKET STATISTICS ON 10/30/2024