Signs of a Slowdown
On August 8, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF), fell by 0.13% to 98.05 after a slight gain the previous day.
In the global market, the USD is under pressure following signals from the Federal Reserve that it may keep interest rates higher for longer than expected. Additionally, recently released US economic data has been less positive, diminishing the greenback’s appeal relative to other currencies.
Today, the State Bank of Vietnam set the daily reference exchange rate at 23,228 VND per USD, a decrease of 21 VND from the previous day.
Commercial banks are trading the dollar at around 26,030 – 26,390 VND/USD (buying – selling).
However, since the beginning of the year, the VND has appreciated by over 3% and has remained at elevated levels in recent days.
According to a newly released macroeconomic report for the second half of 2025 by Vietcombank Securities (VCBS), there are signs that the upward trend in exchange rates is slowing down, indicating that pressure on the VND is easing.
VCBS attributes the pressure on the currency mainly to events in the second quarter of this year, during which the VND depreciated by approximately 3% against the USD. However, the currency strengthened following the announcement of official tariff rates between the US and Vietnam, as well as with other countries.
USD remains above 26,000 VND.
VCBS commends Vietnam’s exceptional negotiating prowess, as evidenced by the US imposing a 20% tariff on the country, significantly lower than that imposed on many other nations.
The foreign exchange market has witnessed several other positive factors. According to the VCBS report, the positive agreement on tariff rates reduces the risk of a trade war and stabilizes foreign currency inflows from exports.
In the first half of the year, foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursements reached $8.25 billion, a 7.2% increase, boosting foreign currency supply. Vietnam is an attractive destination for high-tech FDI projects.
VCBS analysts anticipate stable remittance inflows in 2025, particularly supporting the exchange rate towards the year-end. Based on this analysis, VCBS forecasts that the VND will depreciate within a reasonable range of 3-4% against the USD for the full year 2025.
VNĐ Depreciation to Slow
At a recent investor conference organized by VPBank, Mr. Luu Cong Thanh, an expert from VPBank’s Capital and Financial Markets Division, opined that while there is relatively weak pressure on the exchange rate, the VND’s depreciation trend is likely to continue.
Mr. Thanh explained that in the past, when countries worldwide simultaneously raised interest rates, it exerted significant pressure on the VND. However, the trend has reversed since the beginning of this year, with many countries starting to lower their interest rates, particularly in Europe, where rates have dropped by approximately 1%. There are also predictions that the US will cut rates in September following disappointing employment data.
Additionally, Vietnam boasts several positive macroeconomic factors, including a trade surplus of approximately $7.8 billion, foreign direct investment inflows of about $11.7 billion, and robust remittance inflows.
According to Mr. Thanh, the exchange rate may continue to rise slightly due to inertia, and interest rates could also increase gradually but not significantly. This increase would primarily be driven by credit growth and would be reasonably regulated by the State Bank of Vietnam.
At the regular Government meeting on August 7, Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam, Nguyen Thi Hong, acknowledged the significant pressure on the exchange rate due to both economic factors and market sentiment.
Thus far, the VND has appreciated by 2.9% compared to the end of last year. In this context, the Governor stated that if pressure on the exchange rate intensifies, the central bank will consider refraining from further interest rate cuts to maintain exchange rate stability.
Injecting Funds into the Economy
In the face of mounting pressure from exchange rates and rising inflation, lending rates have remained steadfastly low.
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Proposed Title: Petition to the State Bank to Lower the Deposit Interest Rate Cap
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Unlocking the Secrets to Effective Real Estate Investment: A Comprehensive Guide by the Ministry of Construction
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