The Subaquatic ‘Gold Mine’: How Vietnam Dived to the Top and Created a Billion-Dollar Industry.

The first seven months of 2025 witnessed a positive growth in Vietnam’s catfish exports amidst a volatile global trade landscape. According to Vietnam Customs, catfish exports surpassed $1.2 billion, marking an 11% increase compared to the same period in 2024. This figure showcases the industry’s resilience in the face of market challenges and international policy shifts.

China and Hong Kong remain the largest importers of Vietnamese catfish. As of July 2025, exports to this market reached $302 million, a slight decrease of 4% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 25% of Vietnam’s total catfish exports.

The CPTPP bloc emerged as a shining star for Vietnamese catfish imports. Exports to CPTPP countries during the first seven months of the year reached $208 million, reflecting a significant 34% increase from the previous year. This growth is attributed to markets such as Canada, Malaysia, and several American countries, leveraging preferential tariffs and stable consumer demand.

Vietnamese catfish exports to the US during the same period reached $206 million, an 8% increase year-on-year. Specifically, in July 2025, the US market consumed $31 million worth of catfish, a minor decrease of 0.3% compared to July 2024. However, the new tariff policy expected to take effect from August casts a shadow of doubt on the industry’s prospects for the remaining months.

Brazil continues to showcase its potential, with catfish exports reaching $106 million in the first seven months, a substantial 64% increase year-on-year. However, this market faces the indirect impact of the 50% tariff that the US plans to impose on goods originating from Brazil, including white-fleshed fish.

As of July 2025, catfish exports to the EU reached $104 million, a modest 5% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Frozen catfish fillets remain the flagship product in Vietnam’s catfish exports to various markets. Exports of this product during the first seven months of the year reached $976 million, an 11% increase year-on-year. This shift indicates a move towards higher-value products that meet stringent market requirements while mitigating risks from tariffs and fluctuating raw material prices.

In the remaining months of the year, Vietnam’s catfish exports will be influenced by multiple factors. News from July about potential new US import tariffs on some trading partners, including white-fleshed fish exporters, has prompted a cautious approach from businesses and importers. Should the new US tariff policy come into effect, it could trigger a shift in the global white-fleshed fish supply chain, presenting both expansion opportunities and competitive price challenges. The EU and CPTPP are forecasted to remain stable pillars, leveraging FTA advantages and consistent buying power.

In the latter half of the year, VASEP predicts challenges for the seafood industry if the US imposes a new 20% retaliatory tariff. Catfish, in particular, will experience significant cost and pricing impacts, especially with the slowdown in the Chinese market, forcing businesses to diversify their exports towards ASEAN, South America, and the Middle East.