The Market Pulse: Will Profit-Taking Pressure Emerge?

24 May, 2025

I. MARKET ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET BASICS ON 05/22/2025

– The main indices fell again in the trading session on May 22. Specifically, VN-Index decreased by 0.7%, reaching 1,313.84 points; HNX-Index also lost 0.3%, stopping at 216.79 points.

– The matched order volume on the HOSE floor increased by 13%, reaching more than 1.1 billion units. The HNX floor recorded 90 million units, an increase of 30% compared to the previous session.

– Foreign investors net bought with a value of nearly VND 107 billion on the HOSE and net sold more than VND 51 billion on the HNX.

Trading value of foreign investors on HOSE, HNX and UPCOM by day. Unit: Billion VND

Net trading value by stock code. Unit: Billion VND

– The trading session on May 22 opened with a tug-of-war as investors became more cautious after two strong gaining sessions. The market’s liquidity decreased significantly, reflecting caution in new investment decisions. However, thanks to the familiar pull-up effect, the VN-Index still increased by nearly 9 points in the morning session. In the afternoon session, profit-taking pressure quickly returned, causing the market to return to a tug-of-war state of reference. Notably, in the last 30 minutes of the session, the market suddenly fluctuated violently. From a slight green, the VN-Index fell straight down more than 10 points and then suddenly reversed. However, the recovery buying force was not strong enough in the ATC session, causing the index to close down 9.21 points (-0.7%), closing at 1,313.84 points.

– In terms of impact, VPL and VIC were the two stocks that put the most pressure on the market, taking away more than 3 points from the VN-Index. The “king stocks” CTG, TCB, and MBB also pulled the index down by nearly 2 points. On the other hand, only HVN and VHM provided significant support, holding back about 2 points for the index.

– VN30-Index adjusted nearly 10 points, retreating to 1,409.56 points. The sellers dominated with up to 24 codes decreasing, only 4 codes increasing, and 2 codes standing at the reference price. Half of the stocks in the basket simultaneously decreased by more than 1%, of which LPB and BCM were the two codes with the deepest decrease, with a decrease of 2%. On a positive note, GAS and VHM maintained an increase of more than 1% to the end of the session, and MSN and SAB also maintained a slight increase.

The red color dominated in most industry groups. Non-essential consumer goods were the group with the lowest performance today with a series of deep declining codes such as VPL (-6.12%), GEX (-1.54%), GEE (-3.94%), PNJ (-2.23%), FRT (-1.56%), and PLX (-1.42%).

The telecommunications, information technology, and materials groups also recorded a decrease of more than 1%, mainly affected by the selling force of VGI (-2.02%), CTR (-4.02%), YEG (-2.88%); FPT (-1.27%), CMG (-3.07%); GVR (-1.65%), KSV (-4.63%), BMP (-2.95%), MSR (-3.91%), and KSB (-3.02%).

The financial group, although slightly lower, still put significant pressure on the general index with a large market capitalization. Many bank stocks corrected more than 1% such as CTG, TCB, MBB, STB, HDB, TPB, LPB, and MSB. Securities stocks, although positive in the early session, fell across the board at the end of the session, with many codes narrowing their gains (such as VIX, VND, SHS, AAS,…) or turning to negative territory (such as VCI, HCM, FTS, MBS, BSI, DSE, BVS,…)

In the context of gloom, the utilities group became a bright spot, increasing by more than 1%, led by DNH hitting the ceiling price, along with GAS (+1.16%), POW (+3.42%), SBH (+2.99%), and BWS (+2.41%). The industrial and energy groups also maintained a slight increase thanks to the positive performance of HVN (+6.04%), DPG (+5.17%), CII (+1.32%), HAH (+0.93%), TV2 (+1.45%), and BSR (+0.87%).

VN-Index returned to a negative territory with a strong trading volume, well above the 20-day average. This indicates that profit-taking pressure is taking place amid fluctuations when the index retests the old peak of March 2025 (equivalent to the 1,320-1,340-point range). If in the next sessions, selling pressure continues to dominate, the risk of adjustment will increase. Currently, the Stochastic Oscillator indicator is continuously decreasing after giving a sell signal in the overbought zone. Investors should be cautious in the coming period if the indicator falls out of this zone.

II. TREND AND PRICE MOVEMENT ANALYSIS

VN-Index – Fluctuations when retesting the old peak of March 2025

Currently, the Stochastic Oscillator indicator is continuously decreasing after giving a sell signal in the overbought zone. Investors should be cautious in the coming period if the indicator falls out of this zone.

HNX-Index – Trading volume surges

HNX-Index decreased with a strong trading volume, well above the 20-day average, indicating that profit-taking pressure is present. If this situation continues, the index is likely to return to retest the old peak formed in April 2025 (equivalent to the 214-216-point range).

However, the MACD indicator is still maintaining a buy signal and is likely to cut above the 0 threshold in the next sessions. If this state occurs, short-term risks will be reduced.

Analysis of Capital Flows

Fluctuations in smart money flow: The Negative Volume Index indicator of VN-Index cut down below the EMA 20 day. If this state continues in the next session, the risk of sudden decline (thrust down) will increase.

Fluctuations in capital flow from foreign investors: Foreign investors continued to net buy in the trading session on May 22, 2025. If foreign investors maintain this action in the coming sessions, the situation will be less pessimistic.

III. MARKET STATISTICS ON 05/22/2025