Investments

Unlocking the Path to Achieving an 8.5% GDP Growth Target

Unlocking ambitious growth targets in 2025 hinges on two pivotal strategies: implementing meaningful administrative reforms through seamless data integration and ramping up public investment in infrastructure to slash logistics costs, fostering long-term competitive advantages for businesses.

Administrator

26 September, 2025

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At the 3rd Vietnam Economic Forum 2025 on the morning of September 26th, themed “Driving Forces for 8.3 – 8.5% GDP Growth”, experts discussed the current situation and solutions to achieve the 8.5% GDP growth target this year.

The 8% GDP Growth Target: Ambition and Challenges in a New Context

Dr. Tran Du Lich speaking at the forum. Screenshot.

Dr. Tran Du Lich – Chairman of the Advisory Council for the Implementation of National Assembly Resolution 98 on Pilot Mechanisms and Policies for Ho Chi Minh City’s Development emphasized that the 8.3 – 8.5% GDP growth target reflects the government’s strong commitment to creating momentum for economic recovery and development.

Dr. Tran Du Lich noted, “While we may not reach 8.5% growth this year, I believe the 8% target is achievable. In today’s volatile global context, achieving 8% growth would be a significant success.”

Key drivers such as domestic market demand, exports, and public investment must be strengthened and effectively implemented. Alongside high growth, concerns persist about macroeconomic risks like inflation (CPI), public debt, and exchange rate fluctuations. However, recent reports indicate these indicators remain well-managed and coordinated, reflecting the government’s efforts to balance growth with macroeconomic stability and market confidence.

Recent economic forums have focused on removing bottlenecks in exports and promoting industrial localization. A critical question arises regarding the role of “lead enterprises” capable of driving and unifying industry and production clusters. For instance, instead of exporting low-value raw wood chips, the timber industry should focus on developing raw material regions and advanced processing technologies to produce higher-value goods.

Businesses expect a more favorable institutional environment, with the government acting as an “enabler.” They urge accelerated development of digital and transportation infrastructure to support digital and green transitions, enhancing long-term competitiveness.

Need for Substantive Administrative Reforms

Mr. Nguyen Huu Nam

Mr. Nguyen Huu Nam – Deputy Director of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI) – Ho Chi Minh City Branch highlighted that Vietnamese businesses, including FDI firms, face challenges in export markets and domestic administrative barriers.

Key trading partners are tightening policies. Exports to the U.S. fell by over 3% in the first half of September due to countervailing duties. Simultaneously, the EU’s trade balance requirements pressure Vietnamese businesses, which have enjoyed surpluses under the EVFTA. Alternative markets like the Middle East, South America, and Africa are insufficient to offset these losses, forcing businesses to rethink strategies.

Internally, recent mergers of ministries and localities have created new hurdles. Data silos and overburdened post-merger units have complicated procedures, leaving businesses without clear points of contact. Mr. Nam stressed that addressing data interoperability is critical and requires decisive government action.

Mr. Nguyen Huu Nam emphasized that businesses need government support in two key areas: deeper administrative reforms, focusing on data interoperability to simplify processes, and reducing logistics costs, which currently exceed 15% of total costs, directly impacting competitiveness.

While businesses can address technology, finance, and green transitions independently, administrative reforms and logistics costs are foundational issues only the government can resolve effectively—a critical support area businesses eagerly await.

Solutions to Boost Export Growth

Ms. Nguyen Cam Trang

Ms. Nguyen Cam Trang – Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade noted that Vietnam’s export-import activities—a key growth pillar—saw a 15% increase in the first nine months of 2025, surpassing the 12% target. Despite a slowdown in some sectors in Q3, this performance bolsters confidence in meeting annual goals and contributing to GDP growth.

Sustainable growth is supported by coordinated efforts, including economic diplomacy and market diversification through new-generation FTAs targeting regions like the Middle East and Gulf Cooperation Council.

However, exports face significant challenges. Rules of origin remain a bottleneck. For example, the “from yarn forward” rule in the CPTPP hinders the textile industry due to reliance on imported materials. Vietnam seeks more flexible provisions in upcoming FTA negotiations, such as ASEAN-Canada, to maximize benefits.

Uncertainty in the U.S. market persists, with ongoing technical negotiations on transshipment issues. The lack of clarity on potential 20-40% countervailing duties leaves businesses unable to plan long-term strategies.

Institutional reforms are a top priority. The implementation of Resolutions 66 and 68 in 2025 is gaining traction, with the launch of a portal for legal issue reporting. Government agencies must now address overlapping, inadequate, or missing regulations. The Ministry of Industry and Trade is actively revising relevant documents.

As global supply chains rebalance, Vietnam emerges as a reliable investment destination. However, addressing core challenges in logistics costs, infrastructure, and skilled labor is essential to ensure sustainable export growth in the coming period.

Cat Lam

– 15:01 26/09/2025