September 30, 2025: Prolonged Divergence in the Warrant Market

At the close of trading on September 29, 2025, the market saw 84 stocks rise, 154 decline, and 45 remain unchanged. Foreign investors continued their net selling streak, offloading a total of 3.08 million CW.

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I. MARKET DYNAMICS OF WARRANTS

By the close of the trading session on September 29, 2025, the market recorded 84 gainers, 154 decliners, and 45 unchanged securities.

Market Breadth Over the Last 20 Sessions. Unit: Percentage

Source: VietstockFinance

During the September 29, 2025 trading session, sellers continued to dominate the market, driving down the prices of most warrant codes. Notably, the major warrant codes in the declining group were CSTB2515, CLPB2502, CMWG2511, and CMBB2511.

Source: VietstockFinance

The total market trading volume on September 29 reached 35.48 million CW, up 3.47%; trading value reached 69.72 billion VND, down 5.27% compared to the session on September 26. Among these, CFPT2512 led the market in volume with 2.18 million CW; CVPB2515 led in trading value with 2.78 billion VND.

Foreign investors continued to net sell in the September 29 session, with a total net sell of 3.08 million CW. CTPB2508 and CHPG2516 were the two most heavily net-sold codes.

Securities companies SSI, ACBS, HCM, KIS, and VPBankS are currently the issuers with the most warrant codes in the market.

Source: VietstockFinance

II. MARKET STATISTICS

Source: VietstockFinance

III. WARRANT VALUATION

Based on the valuation method appropriate as of the starting date of September 30, 2025, the reasonable prices of the warrants currently trading in the market are as follows:

Source: VietstockFinance

Note: The opportunity cost in the valuation model has been adjusted to suit the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free treasury bill rate (Government treasury bill) is replaced by the average deposit rate of major banks, with maturity adjustments appropriate for each type of warrant.

According to the above valuation, CVIC2507 and CVIC2508 are currently the two most attractively priced warrant codes.

Warrant codes with higher effective gearing will experience greater fluctuations in response to the underlying securities. Currently, CVNM2512 and CVRE2514 are the two warrant codes with the highest effective gearing ratios in the market.

Economic Analysis & Market Strategy Division, Vietstock Consulting Department

– 18:58 September 29, 2025

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