The market surprisingly favored the cash holders, even though no one predicted the missile would fly by overnight. Similar to the tariff collapse, it was a miracle on the stock market!
The VNI closed with a slight decrease and formed a “pullback candle,” but that’s not necessarily a strong support. This is because the index score may be balanced by the pillar, while specific stocks are affected by separate supply and demand. Many codes today still fell deeply and sent negative signals under strong selling pressure. This rebound was mainly due to VIC and VHM being pushed up: VIC recovered 4.78% from the Low price, and VHM recovered 3.17%.
Bottom-fishing funds have emerged, but the cash holders’ price choices are currently advantageous. When the price suddenly opens with a wide range, it immediately attracts demand at deep prices and only stops there. There is no reason to push buyers to raise prices too much because the “confusion” and instability will take many more days to subside.
Missiles have flown before, but the nature of this one could be more tense due to the more significant consequences. The previous “message-sending” responses only caused a slight reaction in the global stock market, but this time it’s harder to predict.
It was not difficult to guess that energy stocks rose sharply today as oil prices had already “spiked.” However, this group cannot absorb all the market’s money. Among bank stocks, only CTG was strong due to separate supportive information, and there was also strong selling pressure at the high price when the price was pushed back by more than 2% from the highest level. The rest of the group was generally weak. After today’s sudden reaction, energy stocks are likely to return to normal soon.
Most other stocks had slightly higher closing prices than their Low prices, reflecting the strong bottom-fishing demand. The only positive signal is the continued bottom-fishing sentiment and willingness to catch falling knives when the discount is deep enough. Enthusiasm is unnecessary because the context favors the buyers, and the price negotiation ability is undoubtedly better than the stockholders.
The market is also testing supply and demand due to the more unfavorable context. If the selling pressure is not too significant, the stockholders’ endurance is good. However, today’s liquidity was very high, with the two exchanges matching up to 28.8k billion, excluding agreements. The rapid decline in stock prices will put pressure on portfolios, regardless of the VNI’s significant loss or not. Therefore, it is advisable to wait for this test of psychology to play out. If you want to catch a falling knife, participate slowly, calmly, and patiently choose the price.
The derivatives market witnessed a large Short position by foreign blocks in F1 with 10,360 contracts. This term is also about to expire, but looking at the past, the F1 Short position and strong Long position in F2 were not as early as this time.
With the sudden emergence of tense developments before the market opened, weak transactions in the underlying market were expected. VN30 decreased from the opening and fluctuated mainly within the range of 1393.xx to 1402.xx in the morning, and the three touches on 1402.xx basis F1 expanded the discount with high liquidity, a signal of a large Short setup. The inevitable consequence was a rapid and sharp decline, with VN30 falling to 1384.xx before VIC and VHM were pulled up. Generally, the entry orders around the predetermined marks were effective and low risk.
With the sudden surge in liquidity today and the sharp drop in stock prices, a large sell-off has emerged, and it is unknown how much it will subside. The underlying market needs to test supply and demand further, but it is likely that buyers will patiently wait and push prices down gradually. The strategy is to watch, Long/Short flexibly with derivatives according to the pillar.
VN30 closed at 1401.2. The nearest resistance for the next session is 1405; 1411; 1423; 1435; 1442. Supports are at 1399; 1390; 1383; 1378; 1372; 1363; 1351.
“Blog Securities” is personal and does not represent the opinions of VnEconomy. The views and evaluations are those of the individual investors, and VnEconomy respects the author’s views and writing style. VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for issues related to the investment evaluations and opinions posted.
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