Today’s Coffee Prices (Oct 3): Downward Trend Amid Global Robusta Harvest Outlook

As of the overnight trading session ending early this morning, October 3rd (Vietnam time), coffee prices saw a decline. Robusta coffee on the London exchange dropped by 56-81 USD/ton, equivalent to a 1.29%-1.83% decrease, while Arabica coffee on the New York exchange fell by 1.5%-1.56%.

Narrowing Gap Between Domestic and Global Coffee Prices

For the benchmark contracts, November 2025 Robusta futures settled at $4,322 per ton (approximately $113.20 per kg), down $81 per ton. December 2025 Arabica futures closed at $8,340 per ton, a $130 per ton decrease.

Today’s coffee prices are expected to dip from the previous average of $117.70 per kg, ahead of the London session.

The exchange rate adjustment shows a decrease of about $2.10 per kg. However, yesterday’s domestic prices only rose by $1.80 per kg despite a $5.30 per kg increase on the exchange, indicating market caution as domestic prices remain higher than global rates.

As of September 2025, Vietnam’s coffee cultivation area reached 764,400 hectares, a 2.3% increase (16,600 hectares) from the same period last year. This growth is attributed to the recent high prices of two coffee crops, encouraging farmers to expand their plantations.

Typically, coffee trees bear fruit after two years and reach full harvest by the third year. Therefore, production is expected to rise over the next 2-3 years.

Will Increased Robusta Production Pressure Prices?

This year, Vietnam’s coffee-growing regions may experience delayed harvesting due to prolonged rainfall caused by storms and heavy precipitation in key production areas.

Last year, similar conditions led to a trickle of coffee supply in the final months, driving prices upward.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts Vietnam’s 2025 Robusta coffee output at 1.8 million tons.

Brazil’s 2025 coffee harvest has concluded with a robust Robusta yield, estimated at 1.62 million tons, closely trailing Vietnam’s production.

According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association, most Robusta will be consumed domestically, though export volumes may increase. Last season, despite a high Robusta harvest, Brazil exported only 394,800 tons, a 20.25% year-on-year decline.

Indonesia’s 2025 Robusta harvest is expected to reach 726,000 tons, primarily for domestic consumption due to high local demand, with limited exports.