Q3 GDP Estimated to Surge by 8.22%

On the morning of October 5th, during the regular September 2025 government meeting, Minister of Finance Nguyễn Văn Thắng announced that the estimated GDP growth for the third quarter was 8.22% compared to the same period last year. Excluding 2022, when the economy rebounded strongly post-COVID-19, this marks the highest third-quarter growth since 2011.

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According to the Ministry of Finance, the international landscape remains volatile, fraught with challenges and risks. Domestically, opportunities and obstacles intertwine, yet challenges dominate, especially as external adversities intensify. In the third quarter alone, Vietnam endured eight typhoons, with four consecutive storms in September. Typhoon No. 10, characterized by strong winds, a wide impact area, and prolonged duration, caused severe damage totaling over 165 trillion VND.

In response, the Government, alongside ministries, sectors, and localities, proactively addressed numerous complex tasks within a short timeframe. As a result, socio-economic growth remained robust in the first nine months, achieving significant milestones.

During the third quarter, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries grew by 3.74%; industry and construction by 9.46%; and services by 8.54%. Overall, GDP increased by 7.84% year-on-year in the first nine months, with the three sectors reaching 3.83%, 8.69%, and 8.48%, respectively, closely aligning with the annual 8% growth target. Manufacturing and processing remained the primary drivers, expanding by approximately 10% in the third quarter and 9.92% in the nine-month period, as planned. The mining industry also showed recovery signs, growing by 9.8% in the third quarter.

Inflation was kept in check, with September’s CPI rising by 3.38% and averaging a 3.27% increase over nine months. Supply chains in disaster-affected areas remained stable. Credit growth remained high, and lending rates continued to decline. The stock and corporate bond markets were vibrant. Nine-month budget revenue reached 1,920 trillion VND, equivalent to 97.9% of the estimate, marking a 30.5% increase year-on-year.

Business activity flourished, with 27,500 new and returning enterprises in September, a 55.6% increase. Since the year’s start, this figure surpassed 231,300, up 26.4%. Total capital additions by active enterprises reached 3,300 trillion VND, nearly 2.9 times higher than the same period last year.

Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang announced that third-quarter GDP growth is estimated at 8.22% year-on-year – Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac

Simultaneously, strategic breakthroughs and major resolutions by the Politburo were implemented, fostering new growth momentum. Culture, society, welfare, and environmental protection received heightened attention. National defense, security, and social order remained stable. Diverse and effective communication efforts strengthened social consensus.

However, the economy still faces significant challenges. New growth drivers are in early stages and require time to materialize. Institutional and legal bottlenecks persist despite ongoing efforts. Consecutive natural disasters have caused substantial damage, with more anticipated in the final months of the year.

The Ministry of Finance proposed key tasks, including thorough preparation of draft laws and resolutions for the 10th National Assembly session; effective implementation of conclusions on restructuring state-owned enterprises and completing October-deadline tasks; promoting sustainable trade and exports; advancing legal frameworks and administrative reforms; and fostering investment, consumer demand, and emerging drivers like technology, innovation, and digital transformation.

The Government also emphasized maintaining macroeconomic stability, social development, disaster preparedness, environmental protection, policy communication, and enhanced public engagement efforts.

Tu Kinh

– 09:42 05/10/2025

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