According to Mr. Tuan, real estate prices in Hanoi are currently double that of Ho Chi Minh City, presenting both challenges and opportunities for the latter’s market post-merger.
Mr. Tuan analyzed that post-merger, Ho Chi Minh City will become a new metropolis with the largest population and economic scale in the country. However, housing prices, especially for apartments, are lower than in Hanoi, and there were times when apartment prices in Ho Chi Minh City were only half of those in Hanoi, even within the same segment.
The director of Batdongsan.com.vn identified five reasons for this disparity.
First, Ho Chi Minh City suffered profound damage due to Covid-19. Investors withdrew capital, businesses closed, and demand decreased. The disruption in cash flow from street shops and rentals discouraged long-term asset holders.
Second, the “bond crisis and trust crisis”: During this period, many large real estate developers faced financial structure breakdowns due to bond maturities. Many projects were frozen with illiquidity, and customers lost trust due to delayed pink books, late deliveries, and legal entanglements, which significantly impacted investors’ confidence in the city.
Third, compared to Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City residents are more willing to relocate to outlying areas like Binh Duong, Long An, and Dong Nai for more affordable prices and better environments. This movement has been robust since the Covid-19 pandemic. In contrast, the demand to remain in Hanoi’s inner city is still very high.
Source: Batdongsan.com.vn
Fourth, Hanoi residents have a better mindset when it comes to owning and investing in land. Multi-generational families in Hanoi tend to buy homes near their parents, creating stable demand. Additionally, during the crisis, the cash flow from the public sector, the banking system, and large corporations remained more stable.
Fifth, Ho Chi Minh City’s urban structure is spread out and doesn’t rely on administrative “price anchoring.” In contrast, Hanoi’s development is concentrated around administrative centers, and its mega-cities have seen significant price increases.
However, Mr. Tuan emphasized that lower real estate prices in Ho Chi Minh City do not indicate weakness. Instead, it is a result of adjustments after the overheated period from 2016 to 2020, the shocks from the pandemic, bond issues, and lost market trust from 2021 to 2023, as well as the city’s demographic composition, behavior, and urban planning.
“In my opinion,” Mr. Tuan stressed, “this price gap presents an opportunity to reposition Ho Chi Minh City’s true market value before entering a more sustainable recovery cycle. This is also the phase where investment capital from Hanoi and demand from the Hanoi market have become clearer in the first half of 2025.”
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