Last week, global gold prices surged dramatically, reaching an unprecedented high of $3,890 per ounce.
A survey of Wall Street experts revealed overwhelming optimism following gold’s remarkable performance. Retail investors are gradually echoing this sentiment, anticipating further price increases in the coming week.
Among 12 analysts polled, 11 (92%) predicted a price rise, with none forecasting a decline. The remaining analyst (8%) expected prices to hold steady.
A parallel online survey of 253 individual investors mirrored this optimism.
Results showed 186 respondents (74%) expecting higher prices, 45 (18%) predicting a drop, and 22 (9%) foreseeing stability.
Gold prices are projected to surpass $3,900 per ounce next week. (Photo: Minh Đức)
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown remains a key factor influencing next week’s gold prices, potentially stifling American economic growth.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that a prolonged shutdown could reduce U.S. GDP by 0.1-0.2% weekly, costing $2-3 billion.
Compared to the 2018-2019 shutdown, which cost $11 billion over 35 days, the current situation could be more damaging amid global economic instability and rising inflation fueled by Trump-era tariffs.
Eugenia Mykuliak, Founder and CEO of B2PRIME Group, notes that while the shutdown captures investor attention, structural factors like currency volatility, fiscal tensions, and global risk appetite are the primary drivers of gold prices in the short, medium, and long term.
Experts predict continued gold price increases, potentially exceeding $3,900 per ounce. However, investors should beware of profit-taking pressures if U.S. lawmakers reach a budget agreement, reopening the government.
Major banks share an optimistic gold outlook. HSBC forecasts prices surpassing $4,000 per ounce soon, driven by geopolitical risks, financial instability, and Fed independence debates.
The bank anticipates sustained high demand from official and institutional investors, supporting gold’s rise until 2026.
However, HSBC cautions that slower-than-expected Fed rate cuts could temper gold’s ascent, a key factor to monitor this year-end.
Michael Brown, Senior Analyst at Pepperstone, acknowledges understandable profit-taking after August’s rally but asserts, “This uptrend isn’t over—dips will attract buyers. $4,000 remains a viable mid-term target, supported by geopolitical uncertainty or robust physical demand.”
Should You Buy Gold Next Week?
Mirroring global trends, domestic gold prices hit a new peak of 138.6 million VND per tael.
Nguyễn Quang Huy, CEO of Finance and Banking at Nguyen Trai University, advises treating gold as a hedge rather than a short-term investment at current levels.
Investors should maintain balanced exposure and avoid leveraged gold purchases—a prudent strategy given the record domestic-international price gap.
Investors should exercise caution when investing in gold. (Illustrative Photo: Minh Đức)
Huy highlights the significant domestic-international price disparity, currently over 20 million VND per tael.
This gap reflects not only costs and market structure but also heightened buying sentiment amid FOMO. However, such divergence poses risks for both investors and businesses.
“The substantial price difference means the domestic market no longer accurately reflects global trends, endangering both investors and enterprises.”
“Faster domestic price increases could elevate business input costs, while buyers at high levels face risks if markets reverse. Long-term solutions require transparent, timely supply increases to narrow this gap,” Huy explains.
Huy advocates comprehensive reforms for market transparency: “Beyond production expansion, we need clear raw gold import mechanisms, speculation controls, and account-based gold market development. Only through these measures can we sustainably balance supply-demand and align with global prices.”
Huỳnh Trung Khánh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Gold Traders Association (VGTA), believes Decree 232, effective October 10th, will transform the gold market.
“However, new regulations won’t instantly narrow the price gap. We await implementing circulars and sufficient official gold supplies,” he notes.
Long-term, Khánh expects regulations to significantly reduce price disparities, potentially to 4-5 million VND, versus the current near 20 million VND difference.
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