Dragon Capital CEO: 10% GDP Growth is Achievable, Stock Market Gains to be Measured in “Multiples”

Vietnam is poised for a breakthrough growth phase, aiming for double-digit GDP growth between 2026 and 2030, heralding a new era of economic development. The question arises: Is a 10% growth rate feasible, and how would achieving it impact the stock market?

At the recent Investor Day, Mr. Le Anh Tuan, CEO of Dragon Capital, affirmed that the double-digit growth target is entirely achievable, contingent on sustaining four key drivers: supportive policies, investment, consumption, and trade.

Regarding supportive policies, to achieve a 10% annual GDP growth, credit growth must be maintained at 16–20%/year, inflation controlled within 4–5.5%, and a trade surplus of 4–4.5%.

In terms of investment, total investment across the economy is projected to rise to approximately $262 billion/year by 2030, equivalent to over 10% annual growth. This capital will stem from expanded public investment, stable FDI inflows, and a robust private sector resurgence.

For consumption, Dragon Capital forecasts that if asset channels maintain their upward trajectory and consumer confidence continues to improve, consumption growth could reach 11–12%/year, becoming a critical pillar of long-term growth.

In trade, while export-import turnover is not expected to surge as in previous periods, to achieve a 10% GDP growth, trade activity must increase by at least 12%/year, with a trade surplus of around $50 billion by 2030.

Addressing the question, “Could 10–12% growth trigger inflationary pressures?”, Mr. Tuan suggests examining Vietnam’s CPI structure, which comprises four main groups: food, construction materials, transportation, and education.

According to him, current inflation risks are not concerning. Education costs, which surged over the past 10–15 years, are slowing; fuel and construction material prices are well-controlled due to China’s slower economic growth, and Vietnam enjoys a food production surplus.

Compared to 2011–2012, when price-controlled sectors saw fuel prices rise 55%, rice by 37%, and pork double, the situation has changed as Vietnam no longer employs price controls.

On monetary policy, during 2005–2008, credit grew by 50%/year, and in 2011 by nearly 40%, causing the exchange rate to drop 25%. “We no longer face such risks,” Mr. Tuan emphasized.

Regarding macroeconomic stability, he noted that previously, investment accounted for 37% of GDP with a 6% budget deficit. Today, Vietnam’s fiscal and monetary foundations are far more stable, so double-digit growth does not imply uncontrolled inflation.

According to Mr. Tuan, double-digit GDP growth will positively impact the stock market. Historically, Asian economies like South Korea, Taiwan (China), Thailand, and China experienced stock market booms during their double-digit growth phases, often growing exponentially.

“With double-digit GDP growth, stock market growth shifts from percentage to multiple. At VN-Index 1,700, the P/E ratio is around 12.5–13, while 2026 profits are expected to rise 18–20%. I believe Vietnam’s stock market is on the cusp of a new opportunity, despite recent strong gains,” Mr. Tuan stressed.

J.P. Morgan predicts the VN-Index could reach 2,200 within 12 months—a scenario increasingly plausible if the economy enters a double-digit growth cycle.

With a strengthening macroeconomic foundation and lessons from preceding markets, Mr. Tuan is confident that sustained double-digit growth will propel Vietnam’s stock market into a new growth cycle, expanding not only in scale but also in quality, depth, and global competitiveness.