“Foreign ‘Sharks’ Dragon Capital, VinaCapital, J.P. Morgan, Pyn Elite Fund Forecast Vietnam’s Stock Market Trends”

Vietnam’s stock market is experiencing a boom, fueled by a recent upgrade. Following FTSE Russell’s official announcement, the VN-Index has seen four consecutive days of gains, reaching a new high of 1,765 points. The VN30 index even surpassed 2,000 points for the first time in history.

Amidst this backdrop, leading foreign organizations in the market, such as Dragon Capital, VinaCapital, J.P. Morgan, and Pyn Elite Fund, have shared their insights on Vietnam’s stock market. Most agree that the upgrade marks a historic turning point, paving the way for a new phase of growth with even more ambitious goals.

“In the next 5 years, Vietnam’s stock market will grow as much as the past 10-15 years combined”

At a recent Investor Day event, Mr. Le Anh Tuan, CEO of Dragon Capital, stated that the official upgrade of Vietnam’s stock market is a well-deserved achievement after over a decade of relentless efforts by regulatory bodies. This is not just a technical advancement but also a milestone showcasing the market’s maturity in all aspects.

Mr. Tuan noted that short-term market fluctuations, whether up or down, are entirely normal, akin to “potholes” on a long journey. What matters more is the long-term trend and the strengthening of the market’s fundamentals.

While the FTSE Russell upgrade is a significant step, the ultimate goal for Vietnam is to be recognized as an emerging market by MSCI. Mr. Tuan likened MSCI to the “biggest fish” and emphasized that the journey towards this goal will not only deepen the market’s growth but also significantly expand its scale and structure.

“I expect that in the next 5 years, the development of Vietnam’s stock market will be equivalent to the achievements of the past 10–15 years combined, in terms of policy, infrastructure, and depth,” Mr. Tuan commented. To achieve the goal of becoming an emerging market according to MSCI and FTSE Russell standards by 2030, Vietnam is pursuing a comprehensive reform roadmap across multiple dimensions.

“With double-digit GDP growth, the growth of the stock market will no longer be measured in percentages but in multiples. At the VN-Index level of 1,700 points, the P/E ratio is currently around 12.5–13 times, while 2026 profits are expected to grow by 18–20%. Vietnam’s stock market is on the cusp of a new era, despite the significant gains made recently,” the CEO of Dragon Capital emphasized.

Pyn Elite Fund believes Vietnam will be upgraded to emerging market status by MSCI in the coming years

Sharing a similar optimism, Mr. Petri Deryng, head of the billion-dollar fund Pyn Elite Fund, believes that FTSE Russell’s decision will attract more institutional investors to Vietnam’s stock market and may boost optimism among Vietnamese retail investors. Equity funds tracking the FTSE index will adjust to this change and increase their holdings of Vietnamese stocks in 2026.

“FTSE’s decision is very welcome for Vietnam, as the government has implemented numerous measures in recent years to achieve this upgrade. We believe that Vietnam will also be upgraded to emerging market status by MSCI, another rating organization, in the coming years. Additionally, the government bonds being rated as investment grade in the coming years will be crucial for financing major public projects in Vietnam,” Mr. Petri Deryng stressed.

Pyn Elite Fund is known as one of the most optimistic organizations about Vietnam’s stock market in recent years. In mid-July, when the VN-Index was around 1,500, the head of this foreign fund predicted that the index could reach 1,800 points this year. In the past, Mr. Petri Deryng has forecasted that the VN-Index could reach 2,500 points with a long-term perspective.

J.P. Morgan’s optimistic scenario predicts the VN-Index could reach 2,200 points in the next 12 months

J.P. Morgan’s latest report suggests that the upgrade decision will open up a significant wave of passive capital inflows into Vietnam. It is estimated that global index funds could inject approximately $1.3 billion into Vietnam’s stock market, equivalent to a 0.34% weighting in the FTSE Emerging Market All Cap Index. Based on the current market capitalization, around 22 Vietnamese stocks could be added to this index.

On this basis, J.P. Morgan has raised its 12-month target for the VN-Index to 2,000 points in the base scenario and 2,200 points in the optimistic scenario, representing a 20–30% increase from current levels. A robust macroeconomic foundation and strong corporate profit growth are the key factors supporting the market’s positive trend.

According to J.P. Morgan, Vietnam’s Q3 2025 GDP grew by 8.2% year-on-year, while listed companies’ profits are forecast to grow by an average of 20% annually between 2026 and 2027. Additionally, if the MSCI upgrade process proceeds smoothly, the market could benefit from a further 10% increase due to P/E ratio revaluation.

J.P. Morgan believes that the current valuation of the VN-Index remains reasonable. The index is projected to trade at a forward P/E of 15–16.5 times over the next 12 months, higher than the ASEAN average but still below the historical peaks of 2018 and 2021. This reflects long-term growth expectations for the economy and the improving profitability of Vietnamese enterprises.

VinaCapital: VN-Index valuation could increase by 15-20% post-upgrade

Taking a slightly more cautious approach, VinaCapital expects the VN-Index valuation to increase by 15-20% over the next 12-18 months. This reflects Vietnam’s positive economic outlook, supportive government policies, expected 15% corporate profit growth over the next 1-2 years, and the potential revaluation of the VN-Index following its upgrade to emerging market status.

VinaCapital believes that this upgrade will be a turning point, opening opportunities for the market to attract foreign capital from emerging market-focused investment funds. “This achievement is not the final goal but a new starting point, setting urgent requirements and challenges for further development, with the strategic aim of expanding Vietnam’s stock market to 120% of GDP by 2030, up from the current 75%,” VinaCapital’s analysts noted.

Following the upgrade, Vietnam will be included in the FTSE EM All Cap Index (with a tracked size of approximately $100 billion). It is estimated that Vietnam could account for around 0.3% of this index (equivalent to approximately $300 million in passive capital for the FTSE EM All Cap Index), with about 30 stocks being added to the index.

Overall, including other emerging market index funds, Vietnam is expected to receive approximately $5-6 billion in foreign capital, comprising $1 billion in passive capital and $4-5 billion in active capital.

Additionally, Vietnam’s stock market is currently trading at a reasonably attractive valuation, with a forward P/E of around 13 times. In the long term, VinaCapital’s analysts believe that economic growth remains the primary driver of the stock market’s performance.