Market Outlook for Warrant Trading Week of October 20-24, 2025: Deteriorating Conditions Ahead

As the trading session closed on October 17, 2025, the market witnessed a mixed performance with 46 stocks advancing, 178 declining, and 34 remaining unchanged. Foreign investors returned to net buying, accumulating a total of 1.54 million CW.

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I. MARKET TRENDS IN WARRANTS

By the close of trading on October 17, 2025, the market saw 46 gainers, 178 decliners, and 34 unchanged stocks.

Market Breadth Over the Last 20 Sessions. Unit: Percentage

Source: VietstockFinance

During the October 17, 2025 session, sellers continued to dominate the market, driving down the prices of most warrant codes. Notably, the major warrant codes in the declining group were CVIC2502, CVHM2502, CVIC2509, CVPB2513, CVHM2514, and CSTB2515.

Source: VietstockFinance

Total market volume on October 17 reached 58.32 million CW, down 5.25%; trading value hit 175.67 billion VND, up 1.68% compared to October 16. Among these, CMSN2514 led the market in both volume and value, with a total volume of 1.92 million CW, equivalent to 9.05 billion VND.

Foreign investors continued to net sell in the October 17 session, totaling 1.22 billion VND. CVHM2521 and CVHM2522 were the most net-sold codes. For the week, foreign investors net sold over 30 billion VND.

Securities companies SSI, ACBS, ACBS, KIS, and HCM are currently the issuers with the most warrant codes in the market.

Source: VietstockFinance

II. MARKET STATISTICS


Source: VietstockFinance

III. WARRANT VALUATION

Based on the valuation method appropriate for the starting date of October 20, 2025, the reasonable prices of warrants currently trading on the market are as follows:

Source: VietstockFinance

Note: Opportunity costs in the valuation model have been adjusted to suit the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free treasury bill rate (Government Treasury Bill) is replaced by the average deposit rate of major banks, with term adjustments suitable for each type of warrant.

According to the above valuation, CVIC2507 and CVIC2508 are currently the two most attractively priced warrant codes.

Warrant codes with higher effective gearing will experience greater fluctuations in response to the underlying securities. Currently, CVNM2502 and CVRE2515 are the two warrant codes with the highest effective gearing in the market.

Economic Analysis & Market Strategy Division, Vietstock Consulting Department

– 18:58 19/10/2025

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