It’s happening. Apple is set to surpass Samsung this year, putting the tech giant on track to become the world’s largest smartphone manufacturer. According to Counterpoint Research, Apple is poised to reclaim the top spot for the first time in over a decade, fueled by the success of the iPhone 17.
iPhone sales are projected to grow by 10% in 2025, compared to Samsung’s 4.6% growth. Both companies outpace the overall smartphone market’s expected 3.3% growth. Apple is forecasted to capture 19.4% market share, reclaiming the top position for the first time since 2011.
Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang attributes this shift to the replacement cycle. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the Covid-19 boom are now upgrading. Additionally, 358 million older iPhones sold between 2023 and Q2 2025 are likely candidates for upgrades in the coming years.
Phone Arena notes that Apple’s rise to the top isn’t surprising—it was only a matter of time, given Samsung’s lack of innovation.
While Samsung currently leads globally, Apple is poised to overtake them before year-end. Though numerous factors drive this shift, the key takeaway is that Apple fans have reason to celebrate for years to come. Apple is expected to maintain its top position at least until 2030, and with smart moves, this dominance could extend far beyond. This signals a critical insight: Apple understands what consumers want, and Samsung needs to catch up.
Consumers Crave Novelty, Boldness, and Distinction
In an era of stagnation and sameness, consumers crave something new, bold, and distinct. The iPhone 17 delivers precisely that—and more. While the iPhone 17 Pro’s redesign sparked debate, its skyrocketing sales aren’t coincidental. Years of minimal design changes left consumers bored. Minor camera upgrades, faster processors, and thinner builds weren’t enough to justify annual upgrades.
Enter the iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max, and the all-new iPhone Air. Even the base iPhone 17 offers exceptional value. Is it any wonder the iPhone 17 lineup is flying off shelves globally? Samsung recently achieved similar success with the Galaxy Z Fold 7, a sleek, powerful foldable challenging industry norms. Its popularity has boosted Samsung’s foldable sales expectations.
Why? Because the Fold 7 offers something different. Meanwhile, the Galaxy S25, though excellent, feels iterative. Apple understands this, and we’ll see the results next year.
iPhone’s Dominance Shows No Signs of Slowing
Apple’s three-year iPhone plan aims to break years of monotony, giving consumers genuine reasons to upgrade. With a foldable iPhone next year, followed by the iPhone 18’s under-display Face ID, and an all-glass iPhone Pro in 2027, Apple fans have exciting years ahead.
Apple is also addressing the budget market more seriously. Consumers no longer need to wait years for a new iPhone SE. This previous approach cost Apple sales, as those unwilling to wait opted for other brands. Now, the annual “e-series”—starting with the iPhone 16e—offers affordable, modern options for upgrading aging devices. This strategy will boost sales in price-sensitive emerging markets.
Samsung Must Listen and Adapt
If Samsung continues releasing iterative phones annually, reclaiming the top spot will be challenging. Unfortunately, Apple has been Samsung’s primary source of inspiration lately, but the Korean giant can easily change this.
The Exynos 2600 2nm chip in the Galaxy S26 is a step in the right direction. However, consumers want tangible innovations, like the rumored (and canceled) Galaxy S25 Edge. Samsung needs more products like the Galaxy Z Fold 7—devices with visible, impactful upgrades. That’s what the public wants, and it’s how Samsung can reclaim its throne.
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