“Golden Brown” Boom in Key BRICS Nation: 81% Surge Threatens Vietnam’s Top Global Dominance

Brazil, the world’s largest producer of Arabica coffee, is undergoing a profound shift in its coffee industry as the impacts of climate change become increasingly evident. Arabica, renowned for its mild and delicate flavor, is becoming harder to cultivate under harsh weather conditions. This has forced many farmers to switch to Robusta, a bean variety known for its robust flavor, heat tolerance, and disease resistance.

In recent years, traditional Arabica-growing regions in Brazil have faced prolonged droughts, rising temperatures, and unpredictable weather patterns. While Arabica remains the primary coffee export, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reveals that Robusta production in Brazil has surged by over 81% in the past decade—a growth rate far outpacing Arabica.

According to Fernando Maximiliano, Director of Coffee Market Information at StoneX, Robusta presents an opportunity for Brazil to maintain its position as the world’s largest coffee supplier amid rapid climate change. “Climate challenges and Arabica losses are the primary drivers behind Robusta’s growth, rather than market demand,” he noted.

Market data underscores this shift. Over the past three years, Brazil’s Arabica output has grown by only 2–2.5% annually, while Robusta has expanded by an average of 4.8% per year. This season alone, Robusta production soared by nearly 22%, driven by its resilience to adverse weather and higher profitability for farmers.

In regions where temperatures are too high for Arabica to thrive, Brazilian farmers are adopting new cultivation techniques to expand Robusta acreage. One popular method involves planting coffee under the shade of native trees to maintain moisture and stabilize yields. “This approach reduces the impact of high temperatures on coffee plants,” said Jonatas Machado, Commercial Director of Café Apuí in the Amazon region.

Robusta’s rise in Brazil is also reshaping the global coffee landscape. While Vietnam remains the world’s largest Robusta exporter, Brazil is rapidly closing the gap, thanks to its efficient supply chain and surging production.

Robusta typically contains higher caffeine levels and a bolder flavor compared to Arabica. However, younger consumers today are less focused on the original flavor of coffee beans, favoring milk-based, creamy, or syrupy beverages that minimize the differences between the two varieties. “They care less about origin or flavor,” observed Matthew Barry, Food Market Research Director at Euromonitor International.

Additionally, as global coffee prices rise, consumers are increasingly opting for Robusta, which is more affordable. In Europe, the price gap between Robusta and Arabica is expected to widen as the EU implements new regulations requiring imported products to be deforestation-free.

Notably, instant coffee—primarily made from Robusta—is exempt from these regulations, creating significant growth opportunities. According to Grand View Research, the EU accounts for nearly 50% of global instant coffee revenue.

Despite being cheaper than Arabica, Robusta prices have reached record highs this year. Alexsandro Teixeira, a researcher at the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, attributes this to Robusta’s nearly double yield compared to Arabica and rising market prices, which have encouraged farmers to invest heavily in its cultivation. Improved Robusta quality is also enhancing its appeal in international markets.

As climate change persists, Robusta may become a key factor in helping Brazil maintain its global coffee industry leadership—while simultaneously reshaping coffee consumption habits worldwide.