Insurance Stock Hits All-Time High Following Massive Surge, Liquidity Peaks at 1.5-Year High

PVI Holdings (PVI) Stock continues its bullish momentum, opening with a gap at the start of the January 16 session. Strong buying pressure dominated the trading day, pushing PVI’s closing price to its upper limit and setting a new all-time high of 112,500 VND per share.

Alongside the price surge, trading volume spiked significantly, with nearly 1 million shares changing hands—the highest level in approximately 1.5 years (since July 2024). This propelled PVI’s market capitalization past the 26,350 billion VND mark for the first time, equivalent to roughly 1 billion USD.

Zooming out, PVI’s rally began in the latter half of 2025. The stock has more than doubled in just six months, showcasing its impressive upward trajectory.

From a macroeconomic perspective, rising interest rates typically favor insurance companies. Additionally, PVI’s surge is fueled by market expectations surrounding Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PVN)’s planned divestment from the company.

According to Decision No. 1243/QĐ-TTg on restructuring, PVN must complete its divestment from PVI by December 31, 2025. Nguyễn Tuấn Tú, PVI’s CEO, confirmed that advisory services for the divestment are nearly finalized. The proposed divestment will be conducted through a public auction of the entire stake, scheduled for January 2026.

Addressing concerns about potential disruptions from changes in major shareholders, Dương Thanh Danh, PVI’s Vice Chairman, assured that PVN’s divestment will not negatively impact operations. While there may be changes in top-level representatives, the management team and personnel at subsidiaries will remain stable.

PVI’s leadership emphasized that the relationship between PVI and PVN has evolved into a commercial partnership based on mutual benefits. Over the past five years, PVI has provided services for PVN projects through open tenders, competing fairly with other insurers.

In terms of financial performance, PVI reported consolidated revenue of 21,615 billion VND for the first nine months of 2025, a 38% increase year-on-year. Net profit after tax reached 1,195 billion VND, up 45.5%. The insurance segment was the primary driver, with profits soaring 160%, and reinsurance revenue doubling.

Based on these results, PVI estimates full-year 2025 consolidated revenue at 28,300 billion VND, exceeding the annual plan by 32%. Pre-tax profit is projected at 1,577 billion VND, a 41% increase from 2024.

However, for 2026, PVI’s management adopts a cautious approach, setting a revenue target of 28,800 billion VND, a modest increase from 2025 estimates. This is attributed to the impact of consecutive storms in 2025, which heightened claims costs and reinsurance expenses. Additionally, interest rates and exchange rates in 2026 are not expected to provide significant support for financial investments.

Concurrent with PVN’s divestment, PVI is seeking a strategic partner for its subsidiary, Hanoi Re – HDI. PVI plans to reduce its ownership from 81.01% to 51%, retaining control. The target partner is an international insurance or reinsurance company with specialized expertise, rather than a purely financial investor. This transaction is expected to be completed in Q3 or Q4 2026.

In financial investments, PVI adheres to a safety-first approach, allocating 70% to deposits, 20% to bonds, and the remainder to higher-risk assets. The company’s leadership noted that interest rates remained low in 2025, with a slight uptick in October. For 2026, PVI forecasts no significant interest rate changes, as monetary policy aims to curb rate increases to support economic growth.

On the exchange rate front, PVI benefited from foreign exchange gains in 2025, but 2026 may not yield similar profits, with potential provisions. With foreign exchange reserves covering approximately 13 weeks (around 20 billion USD), the State Bank faces pressure in managing exchange rates, influenced by the Fed’s monetary policy.