The Cash Flow Trend: Is it time for non-bank blue-chips?

Clearly visible adjustment signals in the banking stock group over the past week have at times caused the VN-Index to plummet with the greatest intensity since the beginning of 2024. The market has yet to witness other stocks/stock groups that are strong enough to replace the banking group, and if the banking group continues to adjust, the risk to the VN-Index will also increase.

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The clear adjustments signals in the banking stock group in the past week have at times caused VN-Index to plummet the most since the beginning of 2024. The market has not yet seen other stocks/stock groups strong enough to replace the banking group, and if the banking group continues to adjust, the risk to VN-Index will also increase.

Although consensus on the impact of leading stock groups on the index trend is banking, experts have different views on the impact of the degree of adjustment in this group. The ability to differentiate and balance different stocks within the group is seen as an opportunity to stabilize the index, especially when some stocks are close to a strong support level. Experts are looking forward to the return of other blue-chips outside the banking group – stocks that have been almost excluded from the recent uptrend.

The ability to rotate capital after the Lunar New Year holiday is expected to be an important impetus to maintain the current upward trend. Although business results have been announced, many stocks have not increased significantly even when profits are reported. The leading role is almost “dominant” of bank stocks, which is quite proportional to the business results, but cannot be maintained forever. The market will create expectations for other blue-chip stocks in the future.

Nguyen HoangVnEconomy

The banking stock group has had a clear adjustment movement, and is the main reason for the strong decline of VN-Index on January 31. However, the last two sessions of the week saw this group stabilize a bit. With the strong increase in amplitude recently, will the adjustment of bank stocks be complete?

 

I think the banking stock group may enter a phase of differentiation and accumulation. At the same time, the “super” blue-chips such as VNM, GAS, MSN, BVH, PLX, FPT, or the Vin group are still hovering around the bottom, then the VN-Index scenario may not want to adjust deeply. When the banking group gradually loses its influence, it may promote the flow of money to other stock groups. Among them, the “super” blue-chips could become a money-attracting area.

Mr. Nguyen Van Son

Mr. Nguyen Van Son – Analyst, Phu Hung Securities Company

The banking stock group has led VN-Index not only in the upward direction, but also in the small adjustments. The past week of trading clearly demonstrated that role, as the main reason for the sharp decrease of this index on January 31 was the adjustment of the banking group after a strong increase.

Currently, I see the pressure to adjust the banking group may have cooled down, but to regain a strong and unanimous rebound like the recent uptrend may be difficult in the short term. Instead, this stock group may enter a phase of differentiation, with only a few stocks in the group returning to the uptrend right away, while most of the group will move within a range to create an accumulation phase before showing a clearer trend.

Therefore, the leading role of the banking group on VN-Index may gradually decrease after the Lunar New Year holiday. I believe that other blue-chip stocks such as VNM, GAS, MSN, BVH, PLX, FPT, or the Vin group, which have been almost stagnant in the past trend, may play a larger role in the near future.

Mr. Nguyen Viet Quang – Director, Yuanta Hanoi Business Center

The banking stock group has led VN-Index not only in the upward direction, but also in the small adjustments. The past week of trading clearly demonstrated that role as the main reason for the sharp decrease of this index on January 31 was due to the banking group adjusting after a strong increase.

At present, I see the pressure to adjust the banking group may have cooled down, but to regain a strong and unanimous rebound like the recent uptrend may be difficult in the short term. Instead, this stock group may enter a phase of differentiation, with only a few stocks in the group returning to the uptrend right away, while most of the group will move within a range to create an accumulation phase before showing a clearer trend.

Therefore, the leading role of the banking group on VN-Index may gradually decrease after the Lunar New Year holiday. I believe that other blue-chip stocks such as VNM, GAS, MSN, BVH, PLX, FPT, or the Vin group, which have been almost stagnant in the past trend, may play a larger role in the near future.

Mr. Nguyen Viet Quang – Director, Yuanta Hanoi Business Center

The banking stock group has played a leading role for VN-Index not only in the upward direction but also in the small adjustments. The past week of trading clearly showed that role when the main reason for the sharp decrease of this index on January 31 was due to the adjustment of the banking group after a strong increase.

Currently, I see that the pressure to adjust the banking group may have subsided, but to regain a strong and unanimous rebound like the recent uptrend may be difficult in the short term. Instead, this stock group may enter a phase of differentiation, with only a few stocks in the group immediately returning to the uptrend, while the majority will move in a sideways motion within a range to create a stronger accumulation base.

Therefore, the leading role of the banking group on VN-Index may gradually decrease. I expect that after the Lunar New Year holiday, the market will shift its expectations to other blue-chip stocks.

Mr. Nguyen Viet Quang – Director, Yuanta Hanoi Business Center

The banking stock group is currently undergoing a strong differentiation, with some strong stocks not adjusting much, such as LPB, ACB, HDB, and many others showing signs of a strong adjustment, such as VPB, EIB, SHB, TPB, and others in a sideways state. Therefore, it is quite difficult to evaluate whether the banking stock group has finished adjusting or not because strong stocks will continue to adjust for 1-2 more sessions to reach a strong support level and rebound, and stocks that are still increasing or sideways can adjust to compensate.

Mr. Nghiem Sy Tien – Investment Strategy Specialist, KBSV Securities

After the leading role of the banking stocks in the upward trend recently, the momentum of the Banking stock group has slowed down since mid-January and has indicated signs of weakness since then. However, if you look closely, some stocks have adjusted differently from the recent highs. Therefore, I think this stock group may continue to fluctuate and struggle within a certain range to create a stronger accumulation base before showing a clearer trend.

Therefore, the leading role of the banking group on VN-Index may gradually diminish. I believe that the “super” blue-chip stocks such as VNM, GAS, MSN, BVH, PLX, FPT, or the Vin group, which have been almost non-moving in the recent uptrend, may play a bigger role in the future.

Mr. Nguyen Viet Quang – Director, Yuanta Hanoi Business Center

The banking stock group may enter a phase of differentiation and accumulation. At the same time, the “super” blue-chips such as VNM, GAS, MSN, BVH, PLX, FPT, or the Vin group are still hovering around the bottom, so the VN-Index scenario may not want to adjust deeply. When the influence of the banking group gradually declines, it may promote the flow of money to other stock groups. Among them, the “super” blue-chips can become an attracting area for funds.

Mr. Nguyen Van Son

SOURCEvneconomy
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