TPHCM’s economy may grow by 6-7.12% in Q1/2024.

With a favorable scenario in the first quarter of 2024, Ho Chi Minh City is expected to experience a growth rate of 6-7.12%.


On February 1, at a meeting on the city’s economic and social situation in January, Le Thi Huynh Mai, Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Planning and Investment, stated that in January, the city recorded some bright spots such as the Industrial Production Index (IIP) increasing by 26.9% compared to the same period; the total retail sales of goods and revenue from consumer services increased by 1.1% compared to the previous month and 24.4% compared to the same period.

In addition, the number of newly established businesses increased by 30.2%, the registered capital increased by 117.2% compared to the same period). The total import and export turnover of goods increased by 19.88%; the total tourism revenue is estimated to increase by 57.4% compared to the same period.

The city leads the country in terms of the number of newly licensed FDI projects (accounting for 42.1% of the country) and the number of capital contributions and share purchases of FDI projects (accounting for 78.2% of the country). Ho Chi Minh City has also established the Digital Transformation Center.

Meeting on the city’s economic and social situation in January. Photo: VGP

Alongside the positive aspects, the city is faced with many challenges and risks. Geopolitical conflicts continue to evolve in complex and unpredictable ways; the global minimum tax of 15% took effect in January 2024, and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has impacted import-export activities.

The total retail sales of goods increased, but it is still low compared to some other localities. The total state budget revenue decreased by 5.8%.

The difficulties in the real estate market have not met expectations, especially for social housing construction projects. In addition, the number of temporarily suspended businesses increased by 23.4% compared to the same period…

Three growth scenarios in the first quarter

According to Nguyen Truc Van, Director of the Center for Economic and Social Forecasting and Simulation, Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Research, to avoid a repeat of the low growth scenario in the first quarter of 2023, since the end of 2023, Ho Chi Minh City has taken decisive actions to promote growth in 2024. This includes focusing on forecasting work, ordering solutions from research institutes and universities, and seeking consultation.

In addition, boosting public investment right from the beginning of the year by organizing conferences to deploy tasks and assign clear responsibilities. Promoting domestic consumption, regional connectivity, promotions, and stimulating e-commerce, stimulating consumer demand in relation to the Lunar New Year.

Based on analysis, the Institute for Development Research has built three growth scenarios for the first quarter of 2023. With the unfavorable scenario of major economies recovering slowly, escalating political conflicts, unpredictable epidemics, and new economic growth drivers not yet fully utilized, the city’s GRDP is forecasted to reach about 4.83-5.95%.

With the baseline scenario of continuing the recovery trend at the end of 2023, promoting traditional growth drivers and new drivers such as science and technology, digital transformation, green economy, and circular economy, the estimated GRDP for the first quarter is about 5.49-6.61%.

With the favorable scenario of good international and domestic environment, predicted risk factors, stable macroeconomic conditions, efficient factors of production, reinforced confidence of people and businesses, Ho Chi Minh City is expected to have a growth rate of 6-7.12% in the first quarter of 2024.

Tung Phong

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