Will gold prices rise sharply after Tet?

The price of SJC gold bars and gold rings is currently reaching new heights. According to experts, the price of gold is likely to continue rising, especially gold rings, given the strong increase in world gold prices from now until after Tet holiday.

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Many predictions say that the price of gold will increase significantly after Tet Nguyen Dan. Photo: Nhu Y

Gold prices inch closer to Tet

With just a few more days until Tet Nguyen Dan, both the SJC gold bar and gold rings have seen a remarkable increase in price. The price of SJC gold bars is around 78 million VND/tael and gold rings are 65 million VND/tael. Since the beginning of the lunar year 2024 until now, the domestic gold price has been fluctuating significantly. In the first trading session of January, SJC gold was at 71.5 – 74.52 million VND/tael, but by the end of the month, it had reached 75.4 – 77.92 million VND/tael. There have been many trading sessions with fluctuations of up to a million VND/tael.

Compared to a month ago, the price of SJC gold bars has increased by 5 million VND/tael, while gold rings have increased by 1.6 million VND/tael. However, this increase has not yet brought the price of gold bars back to the record level set on December 26, 2023.

It is worth noting that despite the rapid increase in gold prices, the gold market has been relatively quiet in the days leading up to the end of the year. Buying and selling of gold bars at the Tran Nhan Tong Gold Street (Hai Ba Trung, Hanoi) has been quite slow. On the other hand, the gold ring counters have been busier. Similarly, gold shops around the Ha Trung area (Hoan Kiem, Hanoi) have also been quiet, in stark contrast to the bustling shopping atmosphere outside.

When asked about the quiet gold market despite the rising prices, many gold businesses believe that the domestic price will follow the global price as gold prices increase worldwide.

According to many experts, the domestic price of gold bars will become closer to that of gold rings, jewelry, and the global price if the monopoly of SJC gold bars is eliminated or if the supply of gold bars is increased. The State Bank of Vietnam has announced that it is evaluating the implementation of Decree 24 and in January 2024 will report on the results of this decree, proposing amendments and supplements to some market management mechanisms that are suitable for the new context of the market.

According to the World Gold Council, Vietnam’s demand for gold jewelry in 2023 decreased by 16% compared to 2022, to 15 tons. The demand for gold bars and jewelry weighing 4.9 decreased by 2%, to 40.5 tons. Total gold consumption in 2023 decreased to 55.5 tons, down from 59.1 tons in 2022.

Gold prices will increase after Tet Nguyen Dan

Giving a forecast for gold prices in 2024, Mr. Huynh Trung Khanh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Gold Business Association, said that the trend of gold prices in 2024 will see more increases than decreases. If global gold prices continue to rise, domestic prices will adjust accordingly. Unless there is a case where raw gold is imported for the production of SJC gold, prices will decrease immediately.

Mr. Nguyen The Hung, a gold expert, believes that domestic gold prices have increased as global prices have shown a steady increase in recent days due to tense information about the Middle East conflict and the sluggish US economy.

Recently, the US announced that unemployment benefit applications increased by 224,000, higher than the previous period of 215,000 and the forecasted 213,000 in the non-farm employment change ADP, which sharply decreased. Meanwhile, the demand to buy and store gold to sell on the God of Wealth’s Day in the context of weak supply also increased the price of the precious metal. “The psychology of pushing up prices by gold traders before the God of Wealth’s Day cannot be ruled out,” Mr. Hung commented.

SOURCEcafef
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