World gold prices have ticked up as investors await the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s meeting with important updates on interest rate forecasts. Domestic gold prices this morning (March 19) increased significantly to nearly 82 million VND/tael, while gold rings remained stable or slightly increased.
At just after 9am, Phu Quy Group quoted SJC gold prices for the Hanoi market at 79.8 million VND/tael (buying) and 81.8 million VND/tael (selling). Compared to the same time yesterday morning, SJC gold prices at this company increased by 300,000 VND/tael for buying and 400,000 VND/tael for selling.
Phu Quy 999.9 round gold ring has a price of 67.9 million VND/tael and 69.1 million VND/tael, respectively for buying and selling, unchanged from yesterday morning.
Bao Tín Minh Châu Company quoted the price of Rồng Thăng Long 999.9 round gold ring at 67.96 million VND/tael and 69.16 million VND/tael, an increase of 40,000 VND/tael for each end of the price compared to yesterday morning.
In the Ho Chi Minh City market, SJC Company quoted gold prices for the same brand at 79.9 million VND/tael and 81.9 million VND/tael, an increase of 400,000 VND/tael for each end of the price.
The price for a round SJC ring when buying is 67.5 million VND/tael and when selling is 68.7-68.8 million VND/tael depending on the weight of the product, an increase of 150,000 VND/tael for each end of the price.
At the same time, the spot gold price in the Asian market stood at 2,160 USD/oz, a decrease of 0.7 USD/oz compared to the closing price of Monday’s session in the US – according to data from Kitco exchange. This price is equivalent to about 64.8 million VND/tael when converted at the selling exchange rate of USD at Vietcombank, an increase of 200,000 VND/tael compared to yesterday morning.
Compared to the converted world gold price, retail SJC gold is higher by 17-17.1 million VND/tael and gold rings are higher by about 4.4 million VND/tael.
At some point in the overnight trading session in New York, gold prices fell to their lowest level in over a week due to concerns that the Fed may keep interest rates high for longer. However, the price recovered and ended the session with a slight increase. At the close, spot gold prices rose by 2.7 USD/oz, equivalent to an increase of over 0.1%, reaching 2,159.3 USD/oz.
“The gold market is not only waiting for the Fed’s interest rate decision, but also waiting for the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s meeting (BOJ). The results of these meetings may indicate that inflation is heating up globally, and gold is a leading anti-inflation investment channel,” said senior strategist Daniel Pavilonis of RJO Futures.
According to experts’ forecasts, the BOJ will raise interest rates at the end of the meeting on Tuesday, ending the last remaining negative interest rate in the world.
The Fed meeting will begin on Tuesday and end on Wednesday with a statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and a press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
According to data from the FedWatch Tool of the CME exchange, the futures interest rate market is betting on a 99% chance that the Fed will maintain interest rates at this meeting. However, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates at the June meeting has decreased in recent days, to about 55%. Over a week ago, this probability was at 80%.
Last week, global gold prices fell nearly 1% after US economic reports showed higher-than-expected inflation – data points challenging the possibility of the Fed maintaining high interest rates for longer.
Gold prices are facing downward pressure due to changes in expectations for Fed interest rates. However, the demand to hold gold as a hedge against inflation helps balance some of this downward pressure. Nevertheless, experts predict that gold prices will fluctuate within a narrow range until the end of the Fed meeting.
The biggest concern for investors in this Fed meeting is the update of the “dot plot” – the monetary policy makers’ forecast for future interest rates.
“I believe that changes in the ‘dot plot’ forecast will play an important role in deciding whether gold prices will resume their upward trend,” said Pavilonis.
For its part, the US dollar is trending higher due to expectations that the Fed will delay interest rate cuts. The Dollar Index reached 103.6 points this morning, up from 103.45 points at the end of last week.
