At the June Trade Promotion Conference, with the theme “Review of Export Promotion in the first half of the year and Deployment Plan for the second half of 2024”, on July 2, the Ministry of Industry and Trade assessed that there would be more opportunities for Vietnam’s export activities in 2024.
BRIGHT SPOTS AMID CHALLENGES
According to estimates from the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance, Vietnam’s import and export activities in the first half of 2024 continued to record positive results. Total import and export turnover is estimated at US$369.6 billion, up 16% over the same period last year; of which, exports reached US$189.5 billion, up 14.2%, and imports reached US$180.2 billion, up 18.1%.
Notably, in the first six months of 2024, exports grew strongly and evenly across all three commodity groups. Specifically, exports of agricultural and aquatic products achieved high growth rates, estimated at 19.9%; exports of key industrial products continued to recover well; and exports of mineral fuels are estimated at US$2.14 billion, up 6% over the same period in 2023.
The United States remains Vietnam’s largest export market, with a turnover of US$44.4 billion, up 22.3% over the same period last year; followed by China with US$22.6 billion, up 9.9%; the EU market with US$20.3 billion, up 14.1%; South Korea with US$10.2 billion, up 10.9%; and Japan with US$9.4 billion, up 3.2%.
On the import side, commodities that need to be imported accounted for 88% of the total import turnover in the first six months of 2024, with an estimated value of US$160.3 billion, up 19.6% over the same period in 2023.
“This indicates a positive recovery signal for production and exports as the demand for importing machinery, equipment, tools, and spare parts, as well as raw materials and accessories for production, has increased significantly,” said the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
However, at the conference, Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), said that the global economy in 2024 still faces many risks and uncertainties. Contrary to earlier predictions, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has signaled only one rate cut in 2024 and maintains a cautious stance on this issue.
In addition, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and, more recently, the Israel-Hamas conflict continue to escalate, showing signs of spreading to neighboring countries. The fight against inflation remains unpredictable, especially the monetary policies of major countries.
Moreover, excess capacity in China will also increase competitive pressure in the market. As consumer demand weakens, China’s surplus goods at low prices may be pushed to export to other countries.
Meanwhile, according to Mr. Hai, the domestic economy has both opportunities and advantages, but also difficulties and challenges. The scale of Vietnam’s economy is still modest, but its openness is large, and its competitiveness and resilience to external shocks are limited.
Unforeseen and unexpected factors still pose risks and are difficult to predict; epidemics, climate change, and natural disasters have abnormal developments, affecting production and business activities.
In addition, Mr. Hai noted that foreign trade activities in the first six months also had a notable point, which was the issue of high sea freight rates, even though May and June were not considered peak seasons, especially for routes from Asia to the US and EU, due to conflicts in the Red Sea, which led shipping companies to change their routes.
Some Asian ports are experiencing congestion, with ships having to wait a long time to load and unload, such as the port of Shanghai, and especially the port of Singapore. The surge in exports from China in May and June has led to a shortage of bookings and an imbalance of containers among Asian ports.
“Based on an assessment of both favorable and unfavorable factors, as well as the positive growth results of import and export turnover in the first months of 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Trade assesses that there will be more opportunities for Vietnam’s export activities to recover in 2024,” emphasized Mr. Hai.
EFFORTS AND SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP EXPORT MARKETS
To develop export markets, Mr. Hai said that the Ministry of Industry and Trade is expediting and striving to conclude negotiations on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as soon as possible.
At the same time, to take advantage of the opportunities from the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), the Ministry is deploying diverse forms of introduction, both directly and online, to promote the benefits and incentives offered by the implemented FTAs.
In addition, units of the Ministry of Industry and Trade continue to promptly inform industry associations and businesses about market developments so that businesses can adjust their production plans accordingly and orient themselves towards finding orders from different markets.
The Vietnam Trade Offices in different market regions regularly update information on the situation of foreign markets; regulations, standards, and conditions of foreign markets that may affect Vietnam’s import and export activities; and provide recommendations to local authorities, associations, and import-export enterprises.
Along with this, there is a need to regularly review, amend, and supplement or propose to competent authorities to amend and supplement legal documents related to import and export activities to simplify administrative procedures and promote the use of online public services to facilitate import and export activities.
It is also crucial to promote the development of logistics services and continue to urge the implementation of the Plan to improve the competitiveness and development of Vietnam’s logistics services by 2025.
Measures should be taken to develop sustainable border trade activities by promoting exports through border gates in the form of official exports and effectively managing and facilitating exports to China.
According to Mr. Vu Ba Phu, Director of the Trade Promotion Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), with the results of the first six months, the export growth rate for the whole year of 2024 will exceed the 6% target set by the Ministry of Industry and Trade at the beginning of the year. However, to enhance export value, businesses need to focus on building and promoting the brand of Vietnamese goods abroad persistently.
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